A whole new war game

By GREG ANSLEY

Under the shadow of what Pyongyang described as "the dark cloud of nuclear war", 11 nations have agreed to begin training in the Pacific and Indian Oceans for naval interception of North Korean ships. "Such a brigandish naval blockade [by] the United States is as dangerous an act as igniting a new war on the Korean Peninsula," the state-run Rodong Sinmun thundered.

In Brisbane, where 100 senior officials gathered this week to push forward US President George W. Bush's new Proliferation Security Initiative, the anger and threats from Pyongyang failed to deter Western determination to block trade in weapons of mass destruction.

US Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and Disarmament, John Bolton, a hard-line advocate of interception of ships, aircraft and land transport, said America was ready for action "right now".

The warning extends beyond North Korea to Iran - a fellow member of Washington's "axis of evil" also believed to be developing nuclear weapons - and other countries suspected of selling or buying weapons of mass destruction or their components.

"The reality is that weapons of mass destruction-related materials, technologies and expertise are more accessible today than ever," Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer told the Brisbane meeting.

President Bush's plan to search and seize materials and missiles is part of America's iron-fisted approach to proliferation and terrorism launched after the September 11 terror attacks.

Announced in Poland in May, membership of the initiative is confined to the US, Britain, Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Poland, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain.

But Washington has made it clear it will want others to join, particularly countries whose territorial waters cover the choke points of international trade, such as the Malacca Straits separating Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia and Singapore.

New Zealand Foreign Minister Phil Goff discussed the initiative with Mr Downer in Adelaide last month, and said Wellington supported multilateral efforts to end North Korea's nuclear weapons programme and weapons of mass destruction proliferation.

But he said New Zealand had not sought to join the Brisbane meeting and was not involved in talks on the proposal. Under the agreement reached on Thursday, joint exercises involving warships, submarines and patrol and strike aircraft will be conducted as part of a new global effort against illicit weapons shipments.

There is a strong reluctance for any naval operations to be described as a blockade, and disagreement exists between the partners on the legal authority to stop and search ships on the high seas.

Australia and other members of the initiative feel bound by article two of the 1958 Convention of the High Seas, which bans any bid by any nation to impose its sovereignty in international waters, and which could view seizures of North Korean ships as piracy.

The Washington-based Council on Foreign Relations has also published legal advice that countries that have not signed the 1970 Non-Proliferation Treaty can legally ship nuclear material under international law.

North Korea has quit the treaty, although its withdrawal has not yet been formally accepted by the International Atomic Energy Association.

There is the further problem of materials that can be used equally for peaceful purposes and for biological and chemical weapons - a problem which required the United Nations to pass a special resolution banning the import of thousands of dual-use materials to Iraq after the 1991 Gulf War.

Instead, most initiative members want to strengthen and use existing laws covering their territorial waters, air space, road and rail systems under which they can deny entry to suspect vessels and aircraft, or stop, board and seize them if they wish.

If necessary, and if the support of such key players as China and Russia can be won, these countries would push for extensions to international law, possibly through the International Maritime Organisation and support from the UN.

There are also strong doubts about the feasibility of forcing suspect aircraft to land, an element of the initiative specifically included by Washington after US intelligence reports that North Korea exported 1300km-range Rodong missiles to Iran in six airfreight shipments earlier this year.

But the US believes it already has sufficient authority under existing international law to block North Korean weapons of mass destruction exports on the high seas, using provisions for the right of self-defence, and in circumstances in which a ship was not sailing under a national flag or where the country under whose flag a vessel was registered gave permission.

Some ships already have been intercepted: a North Korean vessel carrying missiles en route to Yemen, a ferry believed to be smuggling missile parts and intelligence blocked from leaving Wonsan by Japan, and the Pong Su, seized with a load of heroin by the Australian SAS.

This week South Korea claimed Pyongyang had sufficient plutonium for several bombs. The US also believes North Korea may now be able to mount nuclear warheads on ballistic missiles able to strike as far as Japan.

Apart from the immediate threat to potential targets, other major players such as China fear Japan, South Korea and Taiwan could go nuclear in response, lifting the stakes immeasurably.

Analysts have warned that no one can ever predict North Korean intentions with any certainty and that if the interception of its ships was regarded as a final link in the chain of containment, Kim may see no alternative to war.

Although the North's numerically stronger but oil-starved and technologically-outclassed forces would probably be defeated, losses on both sides would be enormous, and a united Korea under American protection would alarm China.

Even collapse and reunification without war would be destabilising: the cost, far higher than the reunification of Germany, would cripple Korea.

For these reasons South Korea declined the invitation to join the Bush initiative, and opted instead for an alternative diplomatic push. President Roh Moo-hyun met Chinese Premier Hu Jintao in Beijing this week and agreed to "peacefully resolve the issue through dialogue".

China will be a crucial player because of its influence in Pyongyang and its supplies of coal and food, particularly as North Korea prepares for next winter.

Beijing has already demonstrated its loss of patience with Pyonyang with a three-day suspension of aid earlier this year. But throwing a possible naval blockade into the ring could launch a whole new ball game.