Voters go to the polls on November 4. Beset from the outset by chronic gridlock and mistrust, the present Congress ground to a virtual halt months ago, as both Republicans and Democrats entered into protracted and highly expensive re-election campaigns.
What is the current balance of power?
The Democrats control the Senate, 53 to 47. Two senators are independents who caucus with the Democrats. The Republicans control the House of Representatives, 233 to 199.
Due to the vagaries of the system by which boundaries of districts are decided, the Democrats actually won 1.4 million more votes overall, but ended up in the minority.
Senate terms are six years, but house terms are only two; and a member of congress must therefore spend much of their time attending fundraisers, courting donors and campaigning.
What are the main issues of the election?
The American public is in a sour mood, and these midterm elections have been referred to by some in the media as 'the midterms about nothing.' The Republican controlled congress has amongst the lowest approval ratings in history for their intransigence, their shutting down of the government last year, their record for the least amount of legislation passed in a session and a sense that their mainly white, male caucus doesn't represent the changing demographics of America.
On the other side, the last of the President Obama's 'hope and change' magic dust has well and truly worn off; and whilst the unemployment rate has fallen, and most economic indicators are heading in the right direction, the results of the half-a-decade long recovery are not being felt by most, and long term unemployment remains stubbornly high, whilst the workforce participation rate remains low. Wages have remained fairly stagnant, which means consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of economic activity, remains fairly muted.
Americans also remain divided about the president's signature achievement, the Affordable Care Act. The legislation seems to be working - the percentage of uninsured Americans is falling considerably - but the public remembers the glitch-ridden rollout of the program and remains skeptical of the mandate that people purchase coverage or pay a fine. Lastly, the public is dissatisfied with the President's response to international crises, such as Syria, the Ukraine and ISIL in Iraq.
Where are the crucial battlegrounds?
Most of the close Senate races are in traditionally Republican 'red' states, so the Democrats are playing a defensive game. Hard to defend in the best of times, such seats are particularly vulnerable this time around. The President's approval rating nationwide is about 42%, but in competitive, or Republican leaning battleground states it is much lower. In Kentucky it is 32%; Louisiana 39%, and Arkansas 34%.
Most of the embattled Democrat incumbents do not want to be seen with the President, and many are running local television ads touting their opposition to him on various issues. They are trying hard to frame the elections as local contests, while the Republicans are trying, at every turn, to link the Democrat incumbents to President Obama's policies.
What is the likely outcome?
Almost all pundits predict the Republicans will retain control of the House. In the modern age, the number of competitive House seats has been winnowed down to a relatively small number, and the Democrats will probably lose a few more. Three or four months ago, the battle for the Senate looked fairly even, but in the last few weeks the Republicans have risen into a slight ascendancy, though many polls remain in the margin of error.
There are some interesting variables: If it is a tie, the Democrats will retain control, as Vice-President Joe Biden will cast the deciding vote. It isn't completely certain with whom the independents might caucus.
What does this mean moving forward?
More gridlock. Much of the public's apathy stems from the fact they see any outcome as just a variation on business as usual in Washington. The Republicans would feel emboldened, and could pass whatever legislation they liked; but the process requires 60 votes to break a filibuster, and they will almost certainly not have that number. And anyway, the President can always veto legislation he doesn't like.
There may be a bit of pressure on the Republicans to accomplish something with their control of both houses, such as limited Immigration reform, but distrust in Washington is so strong that it is hard to see much getting achieved.
In 2016, a presidential year, the scenario will be reversed: the Republicans will be defending a huge number of Senate seats in Democratic 'blue' states, and they may very well lose the senate back to the Democrats.
