Chinese People's Liberation Army honour guard at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Chinese state-run media has ramped up calls to be prepared for war. Photo / AP
Chinese People's Liberation Army honour guard at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Chinese state-run media has ramped up calls to be prepared for war. Photo / AP
"If the United States had to fight Russia in a Baltic contingency or China in a war over Taiwan, Americans could face a decisive military defeat," a report from the US National Defense Strategy Commission states.
It's a dire warning.
The bipartisan panel says the United States has lost its military edge. It expects Beijing to be in a position to muscle Washington out of Asia within just 17 years - by 2035, reports news.com.au.
"As military modernisation progresses and Beijing's confidence in the People's Liberation Army increases, the danger will grow that deterrence will fail and China will use force as a regional hegemon," the report reads.
And while the report doesn't declare China to be a "peer competitor" — meaning that China isn't as powerful as the United States in all areas — it warns the 'first island chain', which includes the contested South China Sea and its controversial artificial island fortresses, is already all but withinin Beijing's grasp.
At the heart of the matter is the US military 'losing its edge' to fight in heavily militarised zones — regions encompassed by advanced anti-access/area-denial weaponry, such as the Baltic, Black and South China Seas.
"America's ability to defend its allies, its partners, and its own vital interests is increasingly in doubt. If the nation does not act promptly to remedy these circumstances, the consequences will be grave and lasting.
"Put bluntly, the US military could lose the next state-versus-state war it fights," the report concludes.
RISING DRAGON
Dramatic technological advances by China in the cyber, space and hypersonic realms also may have given it the edge in key battlefronts.
The US report warns Beijing had invested heavily in upgrading weapons in all theatres. This included underwater drones, new amphibious aircraft, stealth bombers, hypervelocity missiles and cannons — and its artificial island fortresses.
"Had we addressed some of these issues years ago, we wouldn't be where we are," Carolyn Bartholomew, the commission's vice chair said.
Among aspects of concern, the committee found:
- China's new Strategic Support Force had the capability to prevent the use of space, cyberspace and the electromagnetic/radio spectrum in the region.
- Ballistic, cruise and hypersonic missiles had advanced sufficiently to pose a "serious strategic and operational challenges for the US and its allies and partners throughout the Indo-Pacific".
- And China's coast guard had now abandoned its civilian policing status to become a fully-fledged military unit.
"We're seeing a massive reorganisation of the military in order to provide more guidance from the top," the commission's chair, Robin Cleveland, said earlier this week.
And, given the centralisation of power under China's Communist Party rule, that places much more control in the hands of President Xi Jinping.
"Authoritarian competitors — especially China and Russia — are seeking regional hegemony and the means to project power globally," the report reads. "They are pursuing determined military build-ups aimed at neutralising US strengths.
"Many of the skills necessary to plan for and conduct military operations against capable adversaries — especially China and Russia — have atrophied," the commission report argues.
This was because a long-term focus on fighting insurgents and minor powers had resulted in a neglect of the threat of "great power competition".
This has changed, the report agrees, but the continued need to fight in Afghanistan, Syria, Iraq and against terrorist insurgents around the globe is holding the military back.
"Due to political dysfunction and decisions made by both major political parties... America has significantly weakened its own defence," the committee judges.
"Threats posed by Iran and North Korea have worsened as those countries have developed more advanced weapons and creatively employed asymmetric tactics … Around the world, the proliferation of advanced technology is allowing more actors to contest US military power in more threatening ways."
But, mostly, this lack of preparedness would result in "enormous" losses if the US military was forced to confront China or Russia, it says.
"The US military could suffer unacceptably high casualties and loss of major capital assets in its next conflict … the United States is particularly at risk of being overwhelmed should its military be forced to fight on two or more fronts simultaneously."
The committee was formed to evaluate President Trump's 2018 National Defense Strategy.
While it endorsed the strategy, the committee warned Washington wasn't moving fast enough — investing enough — to halt the slide.
This is despite a $US716-billion US defence budget this year — four times the admitted size of China's and more than 10 times that of Russia.
"There is a strong fear of complacency, that people have become so used to the United States achieving what it wants in the world, to include militarily, that it isn't heeding the warning signs," commissioner Kathleen Hicks said. "It's the flashing red that we are trying to relay."
