Cheery Quokka: Some Aussie states are more optimistic about the prospect of travel than others. Photo / Mark Stoop
Cheery Quokka: Some Aussie states are more optimistic about the prospect of travel than others. Photo / Mark Stoop
COMMENT:
When your next overseas holiday will be is a difficult question to answer. Even Ardern or Collins couldn't give a straight answer to travel planners in yesterday's leaders' debate – though there was enough platitudes and wishful thinking about a transtasman bubble.
An overseas holiday is high up everyone's Christmas wishlists, but it's hard to guarantee if we'll see it this year.
While "when" is a difficult question "where" is slightly easier.
Australia's state-by-state approach has caused som headaches for planners. However it has been helpful in identifying the leaders in the pack.
With some educated guesswork and the direction of travel on respective pacific air bridges, we weigh up the likelihood of these overseas travel destinations making a return by the end of the year.
Australia
Western Australia Rebound odds? 5/10
Western Australia is a case of its own. It has mooted leaving the rest of Australia a couple of times, so it's not really the same country. With Perth waiting for Auckland's cluster to die down, it could be the first option on the table.
West side: Perth is a top possibility for a safe travel bridge. Photo/ Josh Spires, Unsplash
Queensland Rebound odds? 4/10
Weeks without community transmission, tropical Queensland has to weigh up whether it wants to welcome guests from neighbouring states or across the Tasman. The new "hot spotting" is hard to work out how interstate travel will work with holidaymakers crossing the border with New South Wales and inbound Kiwis.
Northern Territory Rebound odds? 2/10
The outback, with Uluru at the majestic red centre. Northern Territory is just coming into the cooler, more tourist-friendly winter season. It could be the perfect time to plan a trip. However, it all depends if the territory wants any visits at all. The territory was quick to close parks to visitors from the rest of the country. With no direct flights to Darwin or Adelaide, you'd have to wait until Sydney or Brisbane are letting passengers fly through.
Field of Light: Uluru in Northern Territory will be difficult to reach, but well worth it. Photo / Supplied
South Australia Rebound odds? 3/10
Adelaide and the surrounding provinces have an excellent record of transmission control. They are also dying to open up to tourists after severe wildfires this year. However, this haste to reopen has seen it already allow travellers in from New South Wales, which makes negotiations with New Zealand difficult.
New South Wales Rebound odds? 2/10
The most populated state has been keeping an eye across at neighbours in Victoria. Sydney would give Kiwis a great range of options for a holiday abroad. Even more important to those arranging the air bridge, it would open up New Zealand business and attractions to a much larger market. However, compared to Perth, New South Wales is far less attractive option for civil servants and health officials, never mind holidaymakers.
Across the gap: Sydney would be an ambitious jumping off point for the Tasman bubble. Photo / Supplied
Victoria Rebound odds? 0/10
With 20,000 cases from their second wave, travel is not looking likely. Put it on your wish list to St Nick, by all means, but it would take a Christmas miracles for flights to resume before the end of the year.
There's never been a direct service between New Zealand and Tassie. That didn't stop the idea being floated at the beginning of the year, as airlines scrambled to re-allocate unused aircraft and explore new routes. Hobart-Auckland is not impossible, but it is unlikely.
Realm countries
Cook Islands Rebound odds? 3/10
There has already been one abortive attempt at a Raro bridge, with Air New Zealand and other airlines prospecting for back in September. Of course the Auckland outbreak stopped travel planners in their tracks. As Kiwi citizens, the Cook Islands expected travel negotiations to be simple.
But now we are floating plans for with the travel bubble with Oz, the Cook Islanders are more hesitant to get involved.
Niue and other countries with special relation to New Zealand might be open sooner. Photo supplied, Niue Tourism
The Rock has been feeling a bit more like the prison with which it shares its nickname, without arrivals or departures. The island's special relation with New Zealand should in theory make travel negotiations simple, but has hit many of the same issues as the Cooks. The in-operational control tower at Hanan international airport might also cause some complications – given the pandemic has stopped new equipment being installed.
Antarctica? Rebound odds? 1/10
Last month we heard from domestic cruise companies arguing for sailing to resume to New Zealand's Antarctic dependencies. Technically the arctic base on the Ross sea could be deemed "domestic travel". The only trouble being that the only ships capable of Arctic sailings are unable to travel to the country under current restrictions.
Antarctica? Does the Ross sea count as international travel? Photo / Cassie Matiaus, Unsplash
Pacific Islands
Vanuatu Rebound odds? 2/10
Like many other nations, Vanuatu has been pinning its hopes on a Tasman safe travel zone to revive its tourism reliant economy. However, it's unlikely to get special preference over the Cook Islands.
Samoa's international tourism sector has taken a hit from the lack of travel, however, it is uniquely cautious among other pacific island nations. The measles outbreak in December last year preconditioned the island to take the current pandemic with the utmost seriousness. Determined to wait it out, you can expect "timeless" Samoa to be one of the last countries to jump on the air bridge.
Beachcomber, and Fiji's other islands are in dire need of a safe travel bubble. Photo / Glenn Jeffrey
Fiji Rebound odds? 1/10
The travel hub of the Pacific – Fiji is home to Nadi and Nausori international airports and is spoilt for choice for international air connections with which to negotiate. However with a reliance on 2.1million international visitors, it's hard for Fiji to negotiate a "Bula bubble" large enough to support it. The infrastructure is already there, given sufficiently low community cases of covid. While it would be nice to have a Fijian beach to ourselves, the reality is Fiji will need to prioritise more than a New Zealand travel bubble to keep its tourism afloat.
Wish upon a star: Disneyland holidays in the US may be off the cards for a while. Photo / Disneyland
Further afield
America Rebound odds? 0/10
The United States used to be one of the top overseas destinations for Kiwi travellers. However, holidays in the States might be off the cards even by next Christmas. Talking to the New Zealand Insurance Council, Tim Grafton said that travel to America could be a write off for the near future."Because of the extent of the outbreak its unlikely travel to the US would be covered for the foreseeable future."
