Shoulder months may become less of a 'hack' to avoid tourist crowds and price hikes. Photo / 123rf
Shoulder months may become less of a 'hack' to avoid tourist crowds and price hikes. Photo / 123rf
Travelling during the shoulder season was once a hack to avoid expensive prices and large crowds, but this is starting to change, writes Sarah Pollok
When is the best time to visit Europe or the US? Usually, the answer is the summer months. During June or July, it’s wet and cold in Aotearoa but warm and summery in the northern hemisphere.
Yet, when Natalie began planning her trip to Europe and New York this year, she knew she’d try and avoid ‘peak season’ and visit in May.
“We chose these dates mostly due to our life schedule at this time, and also to avoid price gouging and the increase of tourists during the high season,” the 33-year-old Aucklander said.
Having previously worked at a popular US tourist spot, Natalie knew tourism numbers could be “unbearable” during high season.
She isn’t the only Kiwi favouring the shoulder season. Ben, who also lives and works in Auckland, plans to elope with his partner in Greece and then travel around France and Italy.
The reasons for travelling in September were “mainly getting leave, and avoiding the crowds” as well as the “intense heat”. Recalling a previous trip to Europe, Ben said the destinations were almost too hot and crowded to enjoy.
Michael, a Kiwi living in Switzerland, travels Europe often and his reason for avoiding peak season was simple: “It’s too bloody hot to be honest,” he said.
June and July remain popular months to travel but people are increasingly booking shoulder months according to tour operators. Photo / 123rf
What is shoulder season?
Shoulder seasons have long been a budget way to travel, metaphorically and literally. The concept is simple; instead of travelling during the ‘peak season’, which typically coincides with summer and school holidays, you travel a little earlier or later in the year.
The destination is likely to be cooler, rainier and possibly less eventful and in return, you get cheaper prices and fewer crowds.
Yet, as the world heats up and tourist numbers grow, will the shoulder seasons become the new peak season?
A boom in shoulder season travel was predicted as a travel trend in January 2024 by travel news site and market research company Skift.
In 2023, TUI, a European tour operator, decided to extend its tourist season in Greece and Turkey due to the heat; something TUI CEO Sebastian Ebel said may become standard practice.
“With warmer shoulder and winter seasons caused by climate change and demand by guests, we might see more of these extensions in the future,” Ebel told Skift.
As a result, the company is exploring tours to destinations such as Belgium, Portugal and Cape Verde, where the climate is less intense.
Intrepid Travel CEO James Thornton also said they’ve seen bookings for shoulder season increase for 2024, following Europe’s 2023 heatwaves.
“People that have the flexibility, that can travel, bookings are up 88 per cent into April and May for Europe next year,” Thornton said at Skift Global Forum in September 2023.
“You’re going to start to see more people move away from those peak periods.”
Kiwis share their reasons for travelling off-peak
Kiwis planning their 2024 Europe holidays said milder weather and fewer crowds were key reasons they would travel during shoulder seasons. However, holiday dates were also strongly influenced by when they could take leave from work.
Deborah, an Aucklander planning to visit the UK with her family, said the idea of a winter Christmas appealed and work leave was also easier.
“It’s easier with the compulsory shutdown dates for leave,” she said.
Lillie, a Kiwi moving to London, said there was ‘no particular reason’ for going in April, but she heard the shoulder season was amazing in Greece, where she wanted to visit before settling in.
“Weather is meant to be a really nice temperature, making it easier to see touristy destinations instead of sweating your butt off and aborting mission mid-way through,” she said, adding that catching ferries was also easier. “My friend went in peak season and said it was so stressful battling for space when there were hundreds of people around.”
Elise also said possible plans to visit the UK, France and possibly Berlin would be at the end of July or August so she could “avoid the masses” but, like Deborah, it would be largely dictated by work. “Peak time for Europe travel is also peak time at work,” she said, so it made sense to travel during shoulder seasons.
Booking data reveals similar trends
These anecdotes align with booking data from New Zealand tourism companies such as Flight Centre.
“Many of our travel experts have said most of their customers are choosing to avoid the summer months in Europe and the USA due to the heat and crowds,” said managing director of Flight Centre Travel Group New Zealand, Victoria Courtney.
The data supports this, bookings to Europe and the US made between January 1 and February 22 are most often for April, May and June.
What Courtney found interesting was a drop in July, which is usually a popular month as it coincides with school holidays. Bookings for July trips to the US had dropped 8 per cent this year and 30 per cent for Europe.
Compared to 2019 booking data, July’s dip in popularity was even more stark; July bookings are 30 per cent lower for Europe and 65 per cent lower for the US.
“These declines could suggest people are opting for slightly cooler temperatures earlier or later in the year,” Courtney said, or travelling to different destinations such as Asia.
Several factors could explain the rising popularity of shoulder seasons. Photo / 123RF
House of Travel owner-operators claim customers are slowly shifting away from popular months but some say this has been happening for years.
Katrina Cole, owner-operator of House of Travel Botany Junction, said the extreme heat, crowds and queues of Europe in summer meant customers were booking Europe for May and September but this isn’t new.
“We are seeing that Europe in May and September are proving popular because it’s quieter, European children are back at school and the weather is not as extreme but this is a trend we have seen for a while,” she said.
Petra Otte from House of Travel Wellington CBD said there has been a “significant upsurge” in bookings for April, May, September and October over the last several years.
The increased interest in booking shoulder season travel is new to Charlotte Chalman from House of Travel Invercargill, but it was minor.
“We do still have our biggest departure months June to August due to how cold the Southland winters are, but we are seeing a very small shift but not enough that it’s making waves.”
What about the young travellers? Ones who can better weather the heat and long queues?
Contiki reported June, July and August are still the most popular months for 18-35-year-olds.
However, the company has seen a “bigger uptake” of bookings for shoulder months. Bookings for May have increased 24 per cent year-on-year while September has increased by 4 per cent and October by 17 per cent. Meanwhile, bookings for November, which is certainly off-peak rather than shoulder season, have increased by 57 per cent.
