Ruapehu Alpine Lifts has plans in place for earthquakes, recession, even volcanic eruption, but multiple fires lit by an arsonist came out of left field this year.
The mid-February fires that destroyed Whakapapa's main on-mountain cafeteria, an implement shed housing three costly snow groomers and a lift terminal - causing an estimated $11 million to $12.5 million in damage - mean planned new facilities won't be installed for this season.
"We factored in eruptions, earthquakes, but not the possibility of arsonists lighting fires in buildings away from our roads," RAL general manager Dave Mazey told Herald Travel.
On top of that setback, the country and world is facing the longest and worse economic recession, possibly since the Great Depression of the 1930s, and that is likely to hurt skiing as people chop discretionary spending.
Certainly, the arson attack - and Mazey is in no doubt that's what it was - means there will be no new six-seater chairlift to replace the Valley T-bar this season.
Installation had already been delayed a year after a financially rough season in 2007 and now it is being put back even further.
Mazey says even comprehensive insurance doesn't fully cover the costs of the damage.
"It's going to cost the company in hard dollars and that's just resource we haven't got to upgrade other facilities. The priorities have moved."
The temporary replacement for the 200-seat, three-storey Knoll Ridge facility means visitors will not get the café-style experience they have been used to at Whakapapa, he acknowledges.
"It won't be as salubrious, or as large, but will be adequate to ensure customers have happy days."
A full replacement facility won't be built until 2010 at the earliest.
At least the three replacement groomers should be here by next month at a cost of half a million dollars a shot.
Mazey says the impact of the recession is "a great guess and very complex".
Figures from the just-finished North America season produced some interesting results. Drive-to resorts such as Monmouth in California and Winter Park near Denver in Colorado had an increase in business while destination resorts which people fly to, such as Sun Valley, Idaho, had a serious downturn.
Mazey says that suggests some North Islanders may choose to ski Ruapehu rather than take the more expensive trek south to Queenstown/Wanaka. As further evidence, he notes resort towns in the central North Island such as Rotorua and Taupo were busier than ever this Easter.
RAL has also been encouraged to note that internal tourism is not significantly down, while the number of Australian tourists is up following increased advertising by Tourism New Zealand.
"We are reasonably bullish that if there is a downturn in North Islanders' desire to go skiing, it is going to be reasonably small. Other markets faced a far greater downturn in the last six months than we are."
In a nod to the recession, RAL has held its season and lift pass prices. It also did some smart proactive marketing for Turoa and Whakapapa as a kind of insurance.
In addition to its usual reasonably priced early-bird prices ($409 adult, $359 student, $239 youth), it offered Snovember passes at $350, $300 and $180 if bought by November 30.
RAL, which normally gets almost half its lift revenue from season passes, sold 8000 of the Snovember passes and says sales of the regular early season passes are ahead of last year's 20,000 or so.
"Whether that is an indication that people are going to ski as actively or aggressively as last year I don't know."
Mazey reckons worries about the recession are ebbing.
"Kiwis' perceptions of how bad this recession is going to be are tapering off. We are getting slightly more bullish. We are not seeing here the more extreme results that have been felt in some of the northern hemisphere economies."
But then again, RAL will have to cope with the lasting impact of the arson, including the need to beef up security, a costly business since many buildings are isolated and some can't even be accessed by road.
RAL has at least been able to pay for some improvements. It has upgraded the Magic Carpet beginner lifts at Turoa. And it has introduced more sophisticated lift-pass scanners so passes can be scanned without physically taking them out from under clothing. Old passes can be reused by reloading them.
Mazey says the long-range forecast for the coming snow season looks promising.
Last year, the snow was exceptionally good, particularly late on in the season, which was extended into November.
Mazey describes it as "great skiing, some of the best I've ever have ever seen, unbelievably good" and, ever the optimist, he hopes that, despite fires and recession, something similar will occur this year.
Ruapehu has had good falls of snow in the past couple of weeks and Turoa is scheduled to open on June 20 and Whakapapa on June 27.
* Details of the Whakapapa and Turoa ski fields are at mtruapehu.com
Uphill start for Ruapehu skiing
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