Now might not be the best time to book that 2024 getaway.
Now might not be the best time to book that 2024 getaway.
OPINION
“Book now for a discount.” “Book now to secure the best room.” “Book now for free child places.” Whatever the incentive promised, the essential marketing message is always the same. But while it’s easy to see why travel companies want you to commit as far ahead as possible – they get money in the bank and can gauge demand and plan more easily – it is not always in the consumers’ interest.
Of course, by booking early, you will be able stop worrying and have something concrete to look forward to. And for some destinations and for cruises and trips with extremely high demand, you really have no choice but to take the bait.
But planning so far in advance also leaves you at a higher risk of disappointment – especially when the world is beset by so many uncertainties. And, despite the promised incentives, it certainly doesn’t mean that you will necessarily be bagging the best price. Those who can stay agile, ready to respond to opportunities and avoid problems when they crop up are the ones who will maximise their chances of getting decent value and minimise disruption.
Soon, when the post-Christmas booking peak gears up, the psychological pressure to book for next year will be intense. Here are five reasons to not to book now, but to stay cool and calculate.
As we all know so well, fixed prices are becoming less and less common in travel. Fares, room rates, even car parking charges can change by the day, depending on demand. A “discount” is normally just another way of expressing one of these adjustments; you aren’t “saving” money on some typical selling price. Last-minute price drops, however, certainly can be real and significant. That’s the way to pick up the real bargains.
2. Because it is when you travel, not just when you book that counts
The most straightforward way to reduce costs is simply to avoid travelling at the busiest times. And there is a virtuous circle. The off season and shoulder season are always cheaper, and you are much more likely to find availability and the sort of late deals mentioned above. Sure, if you have to travel in peak season, it’s probably worth getting organised sooner rather than later. But if you don’t, hold off for now.
Civil unrest has been disrupting life and travel in Peru. Photo / 123rf
3. Because the world is an uncertain place
War, pandemic, strikes, erupting volcanoes: we’ve seen it all over the last couple of years. Many of these problems and disasters happen at very little notice and it is not possible to avoid them, even when booking late. But the shorter the time between booking and departure, the less chance there is of something going wrong. And if tensions get high in one region or country, then you can steer away from them. There is also the possibility that a difficult situation might resolve itself and you can capitalise on the opportunity presented. For example, this spring, after the civil unrest which had disrupted life and travel in Peru settled down, proved to be a very good time to travel there. Prices had dropped and there were far fewer tourists at key sights like Machu Picchu.
I have never known a time when so many flights have been cancelled over such an extended period, as air traffic control, airports and airlines seem to have been incapable of effective planning. I’ve suffered three in the last year, and I’ve just had another – a flight to Geneva in January – summarily scrubbed without explanation. Booking later won’t eradicate the risk, but it will reduce it.
5. Because the weather is starting to matter
And it’s becoming highly unpredictable. Floods, heatwaves, hurricanes – unusual weather patterns are often negative, but they also offer opportunities. As I write, it’s 20C in Nice, 21C in Florence, 22C in Majorca and 24C in Palermo and Athens. We are in late November, and all are well above the seasonal average, but none could be reliably predicted until a few days ago. Given that most weather forecasts now show seven to 10 days in advance, there is a strong case for searching for blue skies and making a snap decision.
