Holiday hotspot: A lack of travel restrictions and lockdown measures have led to a covid spike at the destination. Photo / Kamran Jebreili, AP
Holiday hotspot: A lack of travel restrictions and lockdown measures have led to a covid spike at the destination. Photo / Kamran Jebreili, AP
Masks off the minute you step inside. Bars packed and pulsing like it's 2019. Social media stars waving bottles of champagne. DJs spinning party tunes through multi-hour brunches.
Since becoming one of the world's first destinations to open up for tourism, Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, has promoted itself as the ideal pandemic vacation spot. It cannot afford otherwise, analysts say, as the virus shakes the foundations of the city-state's economy.
With its cavernous malls, frenetic construction and legions of foreign workers, Dubai was built on the promise of globalization, drawing largely from the aviation, hospitality and retail sectors — all hard hit by the virus.
At the start of the year, the European tabloid press and social media has been full of glossy photos of the city state. Last week the UK PR agency Trending Travel recently told the BBC it was using celebrity holiday photos to promote the region which had eased Covid travel restrictions over the New Year.
UK Love Island stars Francesca Allen travelled to Dubai while the travel corridor was still open. Photo / Instagram
"Travel agents and Tour Operators alike are all in the same boat, we need to get through these tough times and especially the next few months which is a critical sales period," CEO Keith Herman told the BBC.
Judging by the photos the plan was working. The Daily Mail has reported on various cast members of The Only Way is Essex and Geordie Shore enjoying mask-free holidays to the Emirate. While many other countries closed borders to the UK following mutations in the Coronavirus pathogen, Dubai was still accepting up to 5 flights a day. The glossy photos of Love Island cast members Francesca Allen and Laura Anderson seemed too good to be true.
Party bubble: Holidaymakers on a yacht in Daubai. Photo / Kamran Jebreili, AP
Now reality is catching up to the big-dreaming emirate. With peak tourism season in full swing, coronavirus infections are surging to unprecedented heights. Daily case counts have nearly tripled in the past month, forcing Britain to slam shut its travel corridor with Dubai last week. But in the face of a growing economic crisis, the city won't lock down.
"Dubai's economy is a house of cards," said Matthew Page, a nonresident scholar at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Its competitive advantage is being a place where rules don't apply."
While most countries banned tourists from the UK over fears of the fast-spreading virus variant found there, Dubai, home to some 240,000 British expats, kept its doors open for the holidays. Emirates flew five daily flights to London's Heathrow Airport.
Within days, the new virus strain had arrived in the emirates, but that didn't stop reality TV and soccer stars from fleeing Britain's lockdown and wintry weather for Dubai's bars and beaches — without taking a coronavirus test before boarding. Scenes of pre-pandemic revelry were splattered across British tabloids. Facing backlash, Instagram influencers spotted at raucous yacht parties were quick to proclaim their travel "essential."
Laura Anderson travelled to Dubai while a travel corridor to the UK was still open until last week. Photo / Instagram
Dubai was glad of the influx. Hotel occupancy rates surged to 71% in December, according to data provider STR. The London-Dubai air route ranked busiest in the world over the first week of January, said OAG, an aviation data analysis firm.
"People have had enough of this pandemic already," said Iris Sabellano from Dubai's Al Arabi Travel Agency, adding that many of her clients have been forced to quarantine after testing positive for the virus on arrival or before departure. Travelers coming from a select list of countries don't need to get tests before their trips but all must at Dubai's airport.
"With vaccines coming out, they feel it's not the end of the world, they're not going to die," she said.
For those who do die of COVID-19, long-haul airline Emirates offers to pay $1,800 to help cover funeral costs.
Love Island Star Laura Anderson treads the fine line between work and play in Dubai. Photo / Screenshot
As the outbreak worsens, it seems the stampede will slow. Israeli tourists, who were coming in the tens of thousands following a normalisation deal between the countries, have vanished due to new quarantine rules. A decision to suspend visa waivers for Israelis to the UAE until July took effect Monday. Britain's move to mandate a 10-day quarantine for those returning from Dubai threatens to clobber what's left of the tourism sector.
"Brits make up such an important proportion of tourists and investors in Dubai," said David Tarsh, spokesman for ForwardKeys, a travel data-analysis company. "Cutting that pipeline ... is a complete disaster for the city."
British Transport Secretary Grant Shapps tweeted that the government's decision was prompted by the UAE's latest virus data. Beyond daily infections, however, the data is scant. The UAE does not make public information about disease clusters or hospitalisations.
Amid an aggressive testing campaign, the country has reported more than 256,000 cases and 751 deaths.
On Tuesday, dozens of cars idled at a drive-in coronavirus clinic on Dubai's desert outskirts awaiting tests. At Dubai's American Hospital, where a makeshift tent administers virus tests in a parking lot, a guard said wait times stretched over two hours. At least 80 people lined up as the call to afternoon prayers echoed overhead.
Hours after The Associated Press published this story, the sheikhdom's government-run Dubai Media Office issued a statement saying the emirate "continues to maintain the highest levels of protection against the pandemic and compliance with preventive measures."
Analysts speculate the UAE's unique demographics — 90% expatriate, comprising mostly healthy, young labourers — have prevented well-staffed hospitals from becoming overwhelmed and kept the death rate low, at 0.3%.
But that hasn't assuaged Abu Dhabi, Dubai's more conservative neighbour and the country's capital. Without explanation, Abu Dhabi has kept its border with freewheeling Dubai shut, despite promises to reopen by Christmas. Anyone crossing into Abu Dhabi must present a negative coronavirus test.
Relations between service-heavy Dubai and oil-rich Abu Dhabi can get tense. During the 2009 financial crisis, Abu Dhabi needed to rescue Dubai with a $20 billion bailout. This time, it's unclear whether Dubai can count on another cash infusion, given the crash in global oil prices.
Hard work: Footbal team Celtic drew questions from Scottish parliament over a training camp to Dubai. Photo / Supplied
Even pre-pandemic, Dubai's economy was heading toward another downturn thanks to a shaky real estate market, which has plunged 30% in value since 2014 peaks. The emirate and its web of government-linked entities face billions of dollars in debt repayments. Already the government has stepped in to help carrier Emirates, which received $2 billion in aid last year. Other indebted firms invested in hospitality and tourism may need help, especially with events like World Expo pushed back a year. S&P Global, a ratings agency, estimates Dubai's debt burden to be some 148% of gross domestic product if state-linked industries are included.
Under pressure, authorities have seized on vaccines as the only way to contain the outbreak. Plastered across front pages of state-linked newspapers are stories touting the mass inoculation drive, which officials claim to be the world's second-fastest after Israel, with 19 doses distributed for every 100 people as of Tuesday.
The UAE is offering the Chinese coronavirus vaccine Sinopharm to everyone, even as its announcement about the shot's efficacy lacks data and details. Demand has overwhelmed supply for the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine in Dubai, where hotline operators say thousands of high-risk residents remain on a waiting list.
With the country shattering its infection record for seven consecutive days, Dubai's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, declared that widespread vaccination, not movement restrictions, would "accelerate the full recovery of our country."
But even if Dubai meets its goal of inoculating 70% of the population by the end of 2021, Moody's Investors Service expects the UAE's economy to take three years to bounce back.
"I don't think Dubai's days are numbered," said Page, the Carnegie scholar. "But if the city were more modest and responsible, it would be a more sustainable place."
Morally the wrong decision
Travellers to the Emirate have come under backlash for exploiting a loop hole to fly over seas. While during the lockdown the UK's 'Tier Four' conditions permitted international travel for work reasons, while the work could no be done at home.
Morally wrong: Fleur de Force apologised for exploiting Dubai travel loophole. Photo / Screenshot
This has led to a flurry of influencers with the dilemma of needing to show their sunny holiday photos were indeed a form of work.
Scottish football team Celtic was recently embroiled in a scandal for a training camp in Dubai. Photos from Dubai drew comment from Scotland's first minister Nicola Sturgeon, who told the BBC the club would have questions to answer on return.
"For me, the question for Celtic is what is the purpose of them being there," Sturgeon said.
"I've seen comments from the club that it's more for R&R than training."
Meanwhile backlash has led to some influencers apologising for recent trips to Dubai.
Having initially defended her travel as a "work trip", on January 5, Beauty blogger Fleuer de Force posted an extensive apology to her 770,000 instagram followers.
