Current climate strategies destined to fail says new tourism report

A new report from The Travel Foundation urges destinations and tourism businesses to increase their climate action. Photo / Unsplash

Existing tourism strategies for hitting net zero by 2050 will likely fail according to a new report by a global tourism non-profit.

The soon-to-be-released report by The Travel Foundation found most strategies to reduce emissions were “woefully inadequate” in regards to achieving Paris Agreement-aligned climate goals.

Using sophisticated ‘systems modelling’ techniques, researchers projected future scenarios for global travel and tourism based off current sustainability plans and pledges.

If global tourism doubles in size by 2050 from 2019 levels, as forecast, most strategies would not halve emissions by 2030 or achieve net zero emissions by 2050, the report stated.

Many strategies that rely solely on carbon offsetting, technological efficiencies and biofuels would not be sufficient on their own.

Major Investment and restrictions also needed

The only scenario that appeared to meet the climate goals under current growth forecasts combined these tactics with massive investment into green transport and limitations on pollution-heavy transport.

“This is the only scenario that can provide comparable levels of revenue and opportunities to travel in a decarbonising world,” said the non-profit.

Achieving this would require “trillion-dollar investments in all available decarbonisation measures” and the promotion of transport that can readily reduce emissions, like road and rail.

Aviation growth must also be limited until it can be fully decarbonised, the report said. In particular, it said longest-distance flights must be capped at 2019 levels, as despite making up just 2 per cent of all 2019 trips, they were by far the most polluting.

If unrestricted, these kinds of flights would quadruple by 2050 and account for 41 per cent of tourism’s total emissions while just accounting for 4 per cent of all trips, the report stated.

Report writers acknowledged that achieving the ‘best-case’ scenario would require a huge amount of effort, but said it meant people could still travel and tourism could continue to support destinations and businesses.

Experts from several organisations contributed to the ‘Envisioning Tourism in 2030: Research Report’, such as Netherland’s Centre of Expertise Leisure, Tourism and Hospitality (CELTH), Breda University of Applied Sciences, the European Tourism Futures Institute, and the Netherlands Board of Tourism and Conventions.

The end of ‘business as usual’

According to CELTH Director Menno Stokman, the report made it obvious that inaction was no longer an option.

“It’s clear that business as usual for tourism is neither desirable nor viable,” he said, adding that the industry was particularly vulnerable.

“Climate impacts are already here, increasing in frequency and severity, with monumental costs for humanity and the environment that affect tourism more than most other sectors.”

On a positive note, Stokman said once net-zero travel was achieved, people could enjoy travelling without climate guilt.

“From a climate perspective, once we reach net zero we can travel as much as we like,” he said.

However, it will take time.

The ‘Envisioning Tourism in 2030: Research Report’ will be fully published in 2023.