All eyes are on the tropics as a sub-tropical low drops south towards New Zealand. While it only has moderate chances of briefly becoming a cyclone it does bring a threat to northern New Zealand of rain and gales early next week. However the exact path of the worst weather is still unclear, for that reason we’re advising people to keep up to date with weather forecasts across the weekend. We also take a look at the cold change hitting the South Island at the moment and the weather for the Big Day Out in Auckland.

As the spring-like pattern gradually eases over many parts of New Zealand, allowing for hotter, sunnier, weather to move into the South Island, all eyes are shifting to the tropics where long range models have been picking for some time now a tropical low. This low may well grow into a tropical storm or cyclone before it reaches New Zealand, but at this stage it may weaken again before reaching our shores. Either way, Monday and Tuesday are days to watch next week in the upper North Island. Meanwhile the South Island has hot and sunny weather for the next 24 to 36 hours before the next cold southerly arrives there over late Thursday and Friday. We also take a look at the forecast for the Big Day Out in Auckland this Friday.

A number of people from across southern and western parts of both islands are asking this one question – “what has happened to summer?”. With highs struggling to reach even the low teens for some South Island areas, along with a fair bit of cloud for western places including Auckland, some are wondering when Summer will truly kick off. The good news is that hotter weather is coming – the bad news is that we still see a changeable ‘spring-like’ pattern for the rest of the month for some areas in the south.

In our final weather video for 2013 we bring you the latest forecast for Christmas Day across New Zealand, plus the prediction for the days following. There is some good news for farmers and those who need rain water – but holidaymakers may question the timing! We also take a look at a great photo from Toronto Canada, following freezing rain there earlier today. Plus – the Live Santa Tracker is back at WeatherWatch.co.nz!

We have your Christmas Day forecast, also a basic travel forecast for Christmas Eve. We also take a detailed look at this weekend’s weather. In a nutshell we’re returning to a spring-like pattern, which will produce “changeable” weather around the country, with some regions having fairly sunny weather and others having rain, showers and cooler winds. A big high is also rolling in towards the end of Christmas Day and into Boxing Day – as people head off on holiday.

More changeable weather is in the forecast for New Zealand in the week before Christmas with a few showers here and there – one or two with hail and thunder. For people heading away this weekend Friday looks fairly settled but the winds will crank up and by Saturday strong to gale force winds may affect inland Canterbury and Wellington region. But the forecast for Christmas Day still can’t be ‘locked in’ due to the changeable spring-like nature of the current weather pattern which will be with us for the rest of December.

Humidity and afternoon heating has led to a few days of significant downpours and major thunderstorms around the North Island but a front in the Tasman looks set to drop humidity levels on Tuesday. For Wellington and southern areas you’re entering a late spring pattern. Wellington has a northerly chance to a southerly every second day this week and gales are possible in exposed areas by Friday. The days before Christmas – and Christmas Day itself – still have a question mark but we know there will be a very large high pressure system around NZ – we just need another day or two to lock in where exactly it will be centered.

This weekend looks fairly settled but a few showers will continue to pop up here and there across both islands. Most main centres should be mostly dry with breezy winds. Wellington’s brisk northerlies should ease back for the cricket and the bulk of the rain looks set to affect the West Coast of the South Island with sunniest and driest weather likely in the north east of both islands. Temperatures should be average – even if cloudy don’t forget burn times are now very high.

There’s a fair bit of cloud around this week – mostly in western and southern areas as slow systems move across New Zealand. The forecast for most is a dry one this week – but one or two showers are popping up, again mostly western and southern areas. For the cricket in Wellington the weather looks mainly dry – but a shower is possible and the winds will be mainly from the north.

Eastern and inland areas of both islands may be about to heat up significantly as a nor’west flow moves in across the South Island and lower North Island. Meanwhile in the upper North Island and some central North Island areas pockets of sub-tropical rain are moving down bringing relief again to farmers and gardeners battling a drier than average start to summer. Make the most of the rain – next week is looking dry for many main centres. If you love the heat – make the most of that too if you live in the deep south, as a colder change may move in as early as Sunday.

Summer is with us and while the weekend was a little cooler for some this week looks likely to be much warmer with highs at the end of this week potentially reaching 30 degrees. In the north another subtropical low - weaker than last week - looks like it might deliver a few hit and miss downpours for dry parts of the upper North Island - while South Islanders see a calmer, drier week for the most part with Canterbury ending on a hot note this Friday.

Summer officially starts in New Zealand and Australia this Sunday and the weather here in NZ may well be cooler than the last day of spring on Saturday! A strong to gale nor’west flow will push across the country on Saturday then on Sunday winds swing around to the south west for many places with cooler air pushing in. Don’t worry – the first week of summer still looks mostly sunny and warm – but the first few days look unsettled.

It’s hot and humid in the north – cool and cloudy in the south – and this up and down weather pattern will stay with us into the start of Summer, which kicks off this weekend. The South Island’s run of cooler weather isn’t over yet – and the calm conditions over much of the North Island are also about to be blown away by stronger westerlies. The main weather focus remains over much of the upper North Island for the next couple of days – but it looks as though the South Island may have more of the weather next week.

A low in the Tasman Sea – which brought torrential rain to Queensland on Friday night – is this week moving towards New Zealand and will bring rain, possibly heavy, to some of our driest northern regions. The heaviest falls may be a bit hit and miss but latest rain maps and forecasts all indicate a fairly good chance of a downpour this week, especially from Tuesday PM to Thursday PM.

Rain is in some forecasts for northern New Zealand this weekend but as you’ll see the computer models aren’t in agreement. While there is certainly a risk of rain and showers in the north the latest data suggests the weekend may be sunnier and drier than originally thought… good news for those heading to the beach, but perhaps not so flash for gardeners and farmers. There is rain on the horizon though – a low next week could bring in isolated heavy falls to northern and western areas.

Mostly dry weather conditions are setting back in around NZ but there are a few rain makers in the wings. The first one is a low north of Cape Reinga. The second will come next week from the Tasman Sea while the third low may move in across the entire country for the first few days of December. Only early days – but the models seem fairly confident at this stage. Next update on Friday!

This weekend a front will try to move up the nation – but will fall apart as it does so. This means the weekend will start of wet on the West Coast, windy for central NZ and cloudy for other western and southern areas. However by Sunday the front should have mostly fallen apart with winds easing in central areas. No significant rain is in the forecast until at least the end of next week when a possible low may cross NZ – but the models remain conflicted about the exact path and which regions will get rain.

Sunny weather has returned to western areas as a large high holds firm over the North Island. Calm and mostly dry weather is in the forecast for the next few days and weekend. However the cloudy weather in the west might return at times later this week and weekend as a light westerly flow develops this weekend. Philip Duncan also discusses the possibility of a rain maker in the last week of the month – but says the models remain conflicted.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan talks about the upcoming forecast around the country.

The forecast this week and weekend looks mostly dry for those celebrating Guy Fawkes. For farmers and gardeners wanting rain in the north, there is a low coming in from the Tasman Sea but it is a bit hit and miss. It will deliver isolated heavy showers perhaps on Wednesday and Thursday for some parts of the North Island and potentially the upper South Island. Temperatures this week look warm… in fact hot for some with highs pushing into the mid 20s.

This weekend is looking sunnier, calmer and drier for the most part as air pressure evens out around the nation. Sunny, warm, weather is expected to kick off the weekend in eastern parts of the South Island where light frosts are even possible. On Sunday temps drop a little across parts of the South Island and showers or rain returns to the lower West Coast. For those desperately wanting rain in the north, there isn’t much in the forecast but a low in the Tasman Sea next week may bring a little wet weather to the north and west of New Zealand.

Another burst of wind and rain is coming to New Zealand this week but unlike last week it wont be as stormy with winds mostly below damaging and rain events fairly short lived. The bulk of the rain will be again falling on the western coastline and again mostly the West Coast. Sunniest will be eastern parts of the North Island while windiest weather will again be central and eastern areas – and possibly Auckland for a time as the sou’west flow returns for the end of the working week.

A lot to cover in this weather video – gales for Wellington, Central NZ and eastern areas. Heavy rain for the West Coast. Hot winds in the north and cool winds in the south. The next few days are dominated by a large low pressure system in the Southern Ocean and will push up a strong west to south west wind flow across New Zealand – which eases late Sunday bringing, hopefully, a fairly settled Labour Day Monday. There may be some cloud in the west and even the odd isolated shower – but for the most part Monday looks to be much calmer for most places.

Rough weather and sunny weather are both in the forecast this long weekend. Generally speaking western areas of the South Island will be wet, eastern areas of both islands warm and sunny and southern areas of both islands cool and windy. Northern NZ looks to be most settled with some stunning weather for those regions in the far north and north east – but even this big low in the Southern Ocean will bring a few showers and brisk westerlies to northern areas.

We take a look at the week ahead - and while it's calm to start with in the north, the windier weather comes back this week. It will rise up the South Island on Thursday then the North Island on Friday. We take a look at the forecast for the start of Labour Weekend too - and in true tradition the weekend has a mix of sunny, dry, weather and windy, wet weather. It's a typical spring forecast!

The first large high in several weeks will cross New Zealand this weekend bringing mostly dry and mostly calm conditions. While a front and strong winds move up the South Island on Friday the high will basically ‘kill off’ the wind and rain – leaving cloudy areas and a few isolated showers on Saturday but certainly a huge improvement from recent weather. Most places have a calm, dry and warm weekend on the way.

A large tree in Ellerslie fell onto a car with 3 women in it, one got minor injuries. Large traffic delays occurred while the fire service and tree cutting contractors cleared the tree away.

Severe gales are again blasting parts of New Zealand but there is some positive news if you’re tired of the wind – a large high looks set to calm things down later this week in the north, then into many other areas this weekend. While gales are likely to return to Wellington later this week they should be well down on the hurricane force winds recorded on Monday in the capital. The South Island will be more exposed to windy weather this week – but mostly sunny and warm if you live in the east.

Gales, possibly damaging, will surge across the nation this weekend and again on Monday. On Saturday it will be the North Island most exposed to gales, some gusts over 110km/h. On Sunday the North Island sees winds easing for the most part but then a ferocious band of wind is likely to move into inland parts of the South Island before blasting central New Zealand - including the capital Wellington - on Monday PM. One to watch.

Head weather analyst Philip Duncan talks about the damaging squall that hit an Auckland suburb on Tuesday. We look at the upcoming weekend weather which promises more wind, rain, sun and calm - plus we also look at the new windier weather pattern that is moving in until the end of next week and could bring a spell of severe weather to parts of New Zealand.