Forecasters are warning of severe weather - including heavy rain and gales - across much of New Zealand this week.
The fine, sunny and frosty spell we've enjoyed this weekend should continue tomorrow and Tuesday - but it's set to turn from there, as a ridge of high pressure over the country moves eastwards, and a complex trough approaches the country from the Tasman Sea.
"The trough should move east across New Zealand during Wednesday and early Thursday, bringing a period of heavy rain and strong northeasterlies to many places," Metservice warns.
Severe weather coming mid-week. Today's Severe Weather Outlook has more details on the complex trough due to reach New Zealand late Tuesday and on Wednesday. https://t.co/ePtVj8cXwp ^TA pic.twitter.com/oiL3CcbKwX
The rain should bring more water for Auckland's historically low dams: on Sunday Watercare's dam levels sat at 61.38 per cent, still well below the average for this time of last year at 87.13 per cent.
The third week of August is predicted to be the wettest of the month for most, especially the west in both the South and North islands.
Metservice says there is a low confidence (a 20 per cent likelihood) of rain falling to warning amounts in Northland, and northern parts of Auckland including Great Barrier Island on Wednesday.
A dry day tomorrow, but rain arrives in the west on Tuesday and pretty much everywhere else on Wednesday. The east of the South Island fares best in this complex trough due for the middle of the week. https://t.co/ePtVj8uyUZ ^TA pic.twitter.com/Bw7QLp8ZMd
For the Marlborough Sounds including the Richmond Range, Nelson, Buller, Westland and northern Fiordland during Wednesday, there is a low confidence of rainfall hitting warning amounts, but that increases to moderate for Westland and the western ranges of Nelson.
The forecaster says there is also a 20 per cent chance of severe gale northeasterlies in exposed places from Northland to Taranaki and Taumarunui, including Coromandel Peninsula, from late Tuesday to Wednesday, and in Bay of Plenty, Gisborne and Mahia Peninsula during Wednesday.
In exposed parts of Nelson, Buller, Westland and Fiordland, there is a 20 per cent chance of severe gale northeasterlies at times from late Tuesday to Wednesday.
Sunday temperatures, Monday forecast
After a frosty start in Auckland on Sunday, the sunshine and clear skies are set to remain until mid-week.
A frigid -1C was recorded at Whenuapai Sunday morning and 0.4C at Ardmore, making it the coldest day of the year for the City of Sails.
Metservice said the mercury's below-zero dip in Auckland is the first negative value since July 2018, with frost even spotted in parts of wider Auckland.
Although the temperature rose to a sunny 14C, Aucklanders were reminded that the Covid-19 alert level 3 restrictions are still in force, meaning they should stay home unless they needed to leave for essentials.
And the warm weather is expected to remain on Monday, before things begin to sour on Tuesday, Weatherwatch advises.
A large anticyclone lies over New Zealand tomorrow, but its centre will slowly slip away to the east, letting in an increasing northeasterly airflow.
This means fine weather with cloudy areas and the odd brief shower for Waikato and western Bay of Plenty northwards, with winds approaching from the northeast.
Monday's max temperatures for New Zealand. Photo / WeatherWatch
Auckland with remain fine and warm, with the temperature expected to reach 14C on Monday and Tuesday.
Isolated showers will develop around Northland tonight, spreading south on Monday morning.
Morning cloud will break into mostly sunny weather on the east coast tomorrow, while Gisborne will remain cloudy with a few light showers.
The rest of the North Island has mostly sunny weather, a chance of morning fog about some inland spots with a frosty start, also expect a touch of high cloud to move in also, Weatherwatch says.
Here's your outlook for Monday, and it's not a bad start to the week. But look carefully at that top left corner - this will reach most parts by Wednesday https://t.co/Yjbq0jfCz1 ^TA pic.twitter.com/WaRofqiGi5
In Wellington, areas of cloud will clear later today and from Wairarapa and Hawke's Bay south of the Wairoa District tomorrow morning. The South Island is similarly off to a frosty start this week, with a few morning fog patches around inland areas.
Fine weather is expected in Buller, Westland and Fiordland, with a few showers developing around Fiordland tomorrow morning.
The remainder of the South Island is expected to be mainly fine, apart from morning and evening low cloud and fog.
Cloudy periods, with a few light showers are expected in the Chatham Islands.
Extended Forecast
Tuesday
North Island: Fine south of Taihape. Cloud increasing in the north, with a few showers from afternoon. South Island: Rain developing in the west. Fine with morning cloud or fog elsewhere.
Wednesday
North Island: Rain for most, easing to isolated showers in the far north from evening. South Island: Rain in the west and north, possibly heavy, easing later. High cloud with spots of rain elsewhere.
Thursday
North Island: Rain for most, clearing in the east from afternoon. South Island: Rain in the west and north, possibly heavy. Scattered rain in the south. High cloud elsewhere.
Friday
North Island: Rain for most, but becoming fine in the east. South Island: Rain in the west and south, fine elsewhere.
