In the northern hemisphere 12 to 13 per cent of bee colonies are lost each year. In New Zealand it's been just under 10 per cent for the last three years.
The growth in hive numbers may slow but there are other ways to grow the value of the industry, Kos said. More than 80 per cent of mānuka honey is now sold packaged, rather than raw.
Honey used in wound care and health supplements will get higher prices. The price of mānuka plants has gone up and people are putting in plantations.
Some are experimenting with other native honeys that may be equally valuable - rewarewa, kamahi and rata.
Are there too many bees? Kos wasn't sure.
"There's always been talk of overstocking. With strong growth, there's going to be pressure on resources. It's something we've got to watch continually."
Hive theft is a real issue, and has caught the attention of organised crime.
"It's like stock theft. It's devastating for beekeepers."
A Conservation Department report found European honey bees could be displacing New Zealand's native bees. Kos is watching that, and said more needed to be known about the natives.
After several years of work the Ministry for Primary Industries came up with a definition of mānuka honey in February. People are now getting their honey tested against it and it is too soon to say what the result will be.
The 2017-18 honey season is shaping up to be average or slightly below average across New Zealand. Last season had the lowest honey flow in five years, and this season is better.
In Whanganui it was not so great, Kos had heard. Northland had a poor season but there were some really good honey flows in parts of Otago and Southland.
