Ring fence any supplements that you know you will need for winter first.
The cheapest and most readily available feed is currently palm kernel, and the economics of this in a feed deficit stacks up with it costing about 30 cents landed per kg of DM.
When cows are grazing to a 1500 residual or less, then we can expect 80-100 g MS responses per kg of DM eaten. So there is a satisfactory margin when working on a $6.00 milk price.
Later in the season, all the farm variable costs of continuing milking will need to be added up and onto the additional supplements being fed to keep cows milking, as these costs would be stopped if milking was stopped.
Currently, energy is all that is really needed, but in another four weeks of no rain, then the crude protein (CP) levels in the pasture will be dropping away, and we can start to see some milk responses to feeding a supplement that has higher CP.
Saving some grass silage for March and April when rains do arrive can be effective in replacing the dissolving pastures that cows are currently content on.
Stocking rate
Stocking rates may need to be reduced where possible, as soon as possible. This can be done by culling cows that you know you will not be keeping for next season.
Having pregnancy scan done now will allow you to drop the empties as you need to.
Can also dry off and put onto tight rations any fat and low producing cows that can be just fed maintenance of 7 kgs DM /cow/day for the next three months.
Rotation length
You should be on at least a 30-day round length now. The slower round length allows for higher average pasture covers, which reduces the amount of evapotranspiration. It also helps when drought-breaking rains do arrive, to maximise re-growth rates.
Variable milking frequency
Milking OAD or three times in two days will help keep as many cows milking for longer into the summer and autumn before drying off decisions need to be made. Most cows will naturally tend to partition energy away from milk production and will hold or gain some BCS. Ideally the best time to move to OAD is before a feeding pinch.
Feeding levels should not be dropped when going onto OAD, but should actually be lifted for the first week to reduce the production drop. Time this with feeding high quality paddocks or summer crop feeding.
Sacrifice/shade paddock
If the dry does turn into a drought, reducing overgrazing of pastures will become very important. The best way to do this is to milk the cows into their allocation of 12 or 24 hours of pasture and then once a 1500 kgs DM/ha residual has been achieved the cows are removed onto a sacrifice paddock where their supplements are fed to them. They can remain there until the next milking.
In the recent hot days, even getting cows into shady paddocks with water can reduce a lot of stress off them and keep milk production higher.
Water supply
Are you chasing water on your farm? Does this happen every summer? If so then you are lowering your milk production.
Cows in summer will drink 100 litres of water every day.
If you need to temporarily boost supply, then unscrew the valve into the trough as you shut cows in for the next two hours to stop breakages and increase water flow. Another option on the really hot days is to split up the herds to provide more trough access in different paddocks and spread the demand over a wider area.
Now is the time to write your plan of what actions you will take and when — if no significant rain arrives to arrest the situation.