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Home / The Country

Nick Clark: Bumpy ride ahead

Nick Clark
NZME. regionals·
17 Feb, 2017 06:00 AM4 mins to read

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Prime Minister Bill English has announced September 23 is election day. A lolly scramble of spending promises is the last thing NZ needs. Photo / NZME

Prime Minister Bill English has announced September 23 is election day. A lolly scramble of spending promises is the last thing NZ needs. Photo / NZME

On arriving back at work after the summer holidays I was asked by the NFR editorial team to write an overview of the year ahead, focusing on political implications for the economy in an election year.

I should have run for the hills. Everyone knows it's highly dangerous to make predictions and even more so to commit them to writing.

We only have to look back on 2016 to see how wildly improbable events can and do happen.

A year ago, a betting person would have got mighty long odds on a trifecta of Britain voting to leave Europe, the United States electing Donald Trump president, and John Key calling it quits. Yet all three happened.

Overseas, political upheaval shocked the 'establishment' and 'elites' if not the voting public, who seemed to relish proving them wrong.

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Associated with these ructions was heightened financial and economic volatility and concerns about a pendulum swing towards nationalism, populism and protectionism at the expense of globalisation, liberalism and openness.

In New Zealand life seemed to go on and although it was tough on the farm, the domestic economy shrugged off these worries.

Net migration and tourism continued to set records, GDP and employment grew strongly, business confidence was robust, interest rates were low and the Government posted a healthy surplus.

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But just as we thought New Zealand would get through 2016 unscathed we had our own political surprise with John Key's resignation and there was the Hurunui/Kaikoura earthquake, which caused great damage and disruption.

2016 is over - and many will be glad to see the back of it - but 2017 should prove to be no less challenging.

Donald Trump has been inaugurated US president and Britain has chosen to pursue a 'hard Brexit' as it readies for tough negotiations with the EU.

There will be elections in key European countries, such as France, Germany and the Netherlands, which will test the strength of Eurosceptic parties.

China and Russia will continue their recent assertiveness. Expect interest rates to edge up as banks' funding costs rise.

Despite much uncertainty and some dark clouds, expectations are that the global economy will actually grow faster this year.

We should see continued steps to normalisation of US monetary policy although there'll be uncertainty until it becomes clearer what the incoming Trump administration will actually do.

If US monetary policy does normalise this should help take pressure off the NZ dollar and help most of our exporters.

The pound and the euro, though, could come under further pressure as Brexit unfolds, which won't be so good for other exporters, including lamb.

At home we have our own election to look forward to. It will no doubt be closely fought, as they all are under MMP.

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The economy is relatively strong and the polls say most people think New Zealand is heading in the right direction.

However, inequality, immigration, housing, and law and order will be key battlegrounds, meaning the election is no foregone conclusion.

The relatively strong fiscal position will likely see plenty of promises to spend more and cut taxes.

It's one thing to look to fiscal policy to stimulate the economy but a lolly scramble is the last thing New Zealand needs.

Over the past several years a lot of hard work has gone into getting the books back into shape and it would be a terrible waste to allow this to be squandered, especially with the world looking increasingly uncertain and even a bit scary.

But then again who's to say some crazy event won't render all this irrelevant. Strap in for a bumpy ride.

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- Nick Clark is the Federated Farmers Manager General Policy

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