New Zealand changing course on climate emissions

As doubts pile up on the commitment of New Zealand’s right-leaning coalition to reducing greenhouse gases, new figures show the country’s emissions have grown for the first time in five years.

Stats NZ has released its latest emissions estimates, showing a 0.5% increase in the year to March 2024, the first annual rise since 2019.

The news comes just after the world’s hottest-ever day – with global average surface air temperature measured at 17.09C on Sunday – and NZ’s latest emissions-cutting plan.

Under Jacinda Ardern-era legislation, an independent Climate Change Commission sets “emissions budgets” which governments must then form plans to meet to stay in line with NZ’s Paris Agreement commitments.

Last week, Climate Change Minister Simon Watts unveiled the government’s 2026-2030 plan, with more emissions than the previous government’s proposal.

The projections also showed NZ missing its 2035 and 2050 net zero commitments, which has been codified into law.

Watts said he wanted NZ to “both grow the economy and deliver our climate change commitments”.

Behind the government’s new strategy is a bold goal to growing renewable energy, build thousands of public EV chargers, improve waste management and use carbon capture technologies.

The Christopher Luxon-led coalition has delayed efforts to price agricultural emissions – the country’s most polluting sector and a hugely divisive challenge – to 2030.

It has also shelved many of Labour’s previous plans to cut emissions in a multi-billion dollar savings drive.

Under the former chief executive Luxon, the Government has released a corporate-style 100-day plan and two quarterly plans since coming to office, tracking its work and priorities.

An analysis of the 125 action points on those three plans show just one project which would reduce the country’s emissions trajectory: a national policy statement on renewable energy generation, which is yet to be made public.

In contrast, more than a dozen of the Government’s action points would plainly increase emissions.

They include ditching a major South Island hydro scheme, axing fuel taxes, ditching a clean car discount that has led to far fewer electric vehicles being bought, and stopping work on an Auckland light rail project.

It also includes a reversal of a ban on new oil and gas exploration, which Luxon says is necessary for “energy security”.

Luxon and his ministers are derided by opposition parties as climate science deniers for their policy reversals.

Asked the last piece of climate science which shocked him, Luxon said he “typically read the IPCC reports”, the last of which was issued in 2023.

Budget cuts have also made top climate scientists redundant.

This week, Radio NZ reported four climate modellers have been axed from a 10-person team at NIWA, a state-owned science company.

Olaf Morgenstern finished up after 15 years and is taking up a similar role in Germany, with a parting shot for NZ’s new approach.

“We would be truly in dire straits if everybody else followed New Zealand’s commercial ideology because we’d be sleepwalking into a climate disaster,” Dr Morgenstern told RNZ.

“I’m worried about the health of the system in the longer term, and also the fate of my colleagues, who are very good people and don’t deserve to be treated like this.”

Opposition leader Chris Hipkins said the government had no urgency to tackle climate issues.

“It would be good if they did have an agenda to reduce New Zealand’s emissions. They clearly don’t,” he said.

“You can’t offset your way out of the climate crisis.

“Almost every decision that this government has taken in this area have increased the overall level of emissions that New Zealand is producing and therefore will have to reduce.”