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Home / The Country

Marsden Point, foreign investment, Treaty principles: Coalition partner priorities this year, and where potential tension points lie

Derek Cheng
By Derek Cheng
Senior Writer·NZ Herald·
24 Jan, 2025 04:00 PM8 mins to read

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Christopher Luxon speaks from the National caucus retreat in Hamilton. Video / NZ Herald
  • It’s been just over a year since Christopher Luxon’s coalition came to power, with the coalition partners agreeing to a long list of commitments.
  • Many have been delivered, including the tax cuts National had promised, legislation targeting gangs, and a new national infrastructure agency.
  • As Parliament is set to resume, the Herald looks at the coalition commitments the partner parties will focus on, and where potential pinch points lie

Enabling economic growth and unshackling the chains around development will be at the forefront of the Coalition Government’s focus this year, as it continues to tick off the commitments in the coalition agreements.

That work started quickly in the parliamentary term with the scrapping of several of the previous government’s projects, such as Auckland Light Rail and the Māori Health Authority/Te Aka Whai Ora, and then progressing several bigger ticket items including the fast-track legislation.

National has also implemented its core election campaign promises, including tax relief, its “back to basics” in the classroom, and slimming down the public service.

And while there are several items in the agreements that are still on the to-do list, coalition partners Act and New Zealand First have their sights on particular ones that will help differentiate themselves as they move into the 2026 election year.

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Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced a one-stop shop for foreign investors - Invest NZ - during his state of the nation speech. Photo / Mark Mitchell
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon announced a one-stop shop for foreign investors - Invest NZ - during his state of the nation speech. Photo / Mark Mitchell

Foreign Direct Investment

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has already announced a reshuffle that puts the focus on economic growth, with new Economic Growth Minister Nicola Willis talking up more tourists - a low-wage, weak-productivity sector, according to officials - more foreign students, and more foreign investment.

At National’s caucus retreat this week, Luxon said there was a great need for foreign capital, as well as appetite to invest from Australia, Southeast and Northeast Asia, and India.

“They haven’t had a government before actually framing up what the investable opportunities actually are for them.”

In his state of the nation address, he announced Invest NZ as a one-stop-shop to streamline the process and provide tailored support for foreign investors, adding that foreign capital will be needed to build all the major roads on his wishlist.

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This follows the Government already establishing a national infrastructure agency, and signalling changes to the Overseas Investment Act (OIA).

How exactly the OIA will be changed remains to be seen, but the National-Act coalition agreement committed to limiting ministerial decision-making in the law to “national security concerns”.

The Government's plan for its Roads of National Significance will need foreign capital to be implemented, Luxon says. Photo / NZME
The Government's plan for its Roads of National Significance will need foreign capital to be implemented, Luxon says. Photo / NZME

Seymour has told the Herald the proposal was for ministers to continue to have final decision-making rights, but the criteria for blocking a decision would be greatly reduced to just national security.

This could be a tension point with NZ First’s more nationalistic lens when it comes offshore investors and protecting New Zealand’s assets. NZ First supported strengthening the overseas investment regime when it was last in government during the 2017-2020 term

The National-NZ First agreement doesn’t say anything about the OIA, but NZ First leader Winston Peters has advocated for a $100b infrastructure fund for “investments are in our national interests and not offshore global ownership”.

Where Luxon stands on this is unclear, though he has already signalled an aversion to more borrowing, given the state of the books.

There may also be differing opinions over whether the Government should provide incentives for foreign investors; Act wants a level playing field across all sectors, and has an ideological aversion to market intervention.

RMA replacement, regulatory standards, and red tape

Easing the infrastructure path with last year’s changes to the Resource Management Act was part of both coalition agreements.

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The shape and substance of two replacement laws for the RMA should become clearer this year, with a guiding principle being the enjoyment of property rights. This is part of the National-Act coalition agreement.

Private property rights is also a focus in the forthcoming Regulatory Standards Bill, which the Act-National agreement commits to passing into law. The bill will be drawn up from the discussion document that is currently being consulted on.

It aims to improve the quality of regulatory decisions, but critics argue it sidelines environmental and social concerns in favour of private property rights.

NZ First leader Winston Peters and Act leader David Seymour may not see eye to eye on foreign investment into New Zealand.
NZ First leader Winston Peters and Act leader David Seymour may not see eye to eye on foreign investment into New Zealand.

Seymour will also be keen to push through more regulatory reviews, following ones last year into early childhood education, agricultural and horticultural products, and the hairdressing industry. The Act-National agreement suggests that the finance sector could be next.

The governing parties aren’t likely to oppose Act’s wishes here, but that will be a different story when it comes to firearms law reform.

Rewriting the Arms Act and reviewing the firearms registry are both in the Act-National coalition agreement, but the fact that there is little detail about how these will change is indicative of a lack of initial agreement about the direction of travel.

Police Minister Mark Mitchell has already staked his credentials on keeping the firearms registry, and making sure military-style semi-automatic firearms are not more readily available, which Act has proposed under strict conditions.

Fast-track, Treaty principles, and the regions

The National-NZ First agreement led to the passing of the fast-track legislation at the end of last year, but pushing that process forward will be a focus for NZ First this year.

The successful implementation of several projects, particularly in the regions and in certain sectors including mining, quarries and marine development, would provide NZ First with something to show on its scorecard in the 2026 election.

The same goes for the rolling out of the $1.2 billion regional development fund, which was also part of its agreement with National.

This could include support for projects on the conservation estate, which will be impacted by another coalition commitment: reviewing the Treaty of Waitangi principles in legislation.

A reference to those principles in the Conservation Act has been seen by some iwi as an effective veto right. Removing it to enable an easier path to more development may not be a tension point for governing parties, but it would be another hurdle in Crown-Māori relations.

Act’s Treaty Principles Bill will continue to strain those relations at the start of the political year, but once it is killed at its second reading, don’t expect a sudden improvement. The National-NZ First commitment to review and replace references to Treaty principles in legislation should become clearer this year, as well as the overhaul of the Waitangi Tribunal legislation.

Channel Infrastructure has outlined its plans for Marsden Point. Image / Supplied
Channel Infrastructure has outlined its plans for Marsden Point. Image / Supplied

The future of the Marsden Point refinery

The National-NZ First agreement commits to looking into reopening the Marsden Point refinery, but like the firearms law reform clauses in the National-Act agreement, there is little concrete detail about what its future will be.

The refining operation was fully decommissioned a year ago after the owners said it was not profitable. Hundreds of jobs were lost. The site is still used to import refined oil.

The site was given a conditional lifeline in October, with a contract to potentially develop a biorefinery that converts biomass into biofuels.

Regional Development and Associate Energy Minister Shane Jones has already shown support for turning the site into an energy precinct to help bolster fuel security and energy resilience. But questions remain over whether any enterprise would want to be involved, and if any incentives would be needed to entice them.

NZ First could face an ideological pinch point here, if Act or National viewed such incentives as corporate welfare.

Other potential pinch points are energy sector reforms (NZ First is seen as much keener on this), and changes to the Holidays Act and health and safety laws (Act and NZ First may differ on how much the dial should be shifted away from employees and towards employers), which Luxon has identified as a barrier to business.

Like firearms law reform for Act, any lack of support for NZ First’s wishes in the energy sector or for Marsden Point could become a campaign focal point in 2026: something that could become reality, if only the party had more influence.

The deadline on a coalition commitment for 500 more police within two years looms at the end of this year. Photo / Tim Hales
The deadline on a coalition commitment for 500 more police within two years looms at the end of this year. Photo / Tim Hales

Law and order

There is much more alignment between all three governing parties in the law and order space, and many of the coalition commitments have been implemented or are in train.

Those still to come include looking into different degrees of murder offences, “real consequences” for low-level crimes such as shoplifting, a new offence for coward punching and for assaulting first responders (National-NZ First), and “strengthening the electronic monitoring regime” (National-Act).

One commitment remains up in the air: removing concurrent sentencing for offences committed while in custody, or on bail or parole. Official advice says it would see far more people sentenced to jail than there are prison beds.

The clock is ticking on another - 500 more police within two years - which few seem to think is realistically do-able aside from Peters.

Whether any of these, including the gang crackdown and harsher sentencing - will lead to improved public safety is an open question, but the governing parties will be able to say, come 2026, that they did what they were elected to do.

Derek Cheng is a senior journalist who started at the Herald in 2004. He has worked several stints in the press gallery team and is a former deputy political editor.

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