COMMENT: Carbon emission cuts are an international public good. Our cuts benefit all countries irrespective of whether they follow suit.
Free-riding is more likely for international public goods because there is no effective mechanism for compelling nations to cut emissions, short of a green tariff war, which only works if it is most countries ganging up on a few recalcitrant carbon emitters.
Even if the major emitters cut back, the developing countries have made clear they will not sacrifice ambitious development goals for global climate objectives. Many developed countries are dragging their feet on cutting emissions and that is before we mention the Trump administration withdrawing from the modest targets in the Paris agreement.
Worse, the good guys who act early have a history of getting screwed over in climate treaty negotiations. Bard Harstad in his work on the dynamics of international environmental agreements found "short-term agreements can be even worse" than no agreement because "investments may decline if countries anticipate frequent negotiations". Countries delay their green investments and carbon pricing schemes to improve bargaining positions at later negotiations.
Harstad also found that nations who invest early in clean technologies are expected to make the deeper cuts, for they can do it at a lower cost. In 2008, Poland, Bulgaria and the old Eastern Bloc asked Denmark and other Western European nations for concessions. Eastern Europe was well short of its targets due to great coal dependency. Denmark had a big lead in renewable energy, so the Eastern bloc insisted it cut its emissions even further.