Farmers are destocking sheep in Hawke’s Bay in anticipation of a dry summer, but weather and climate agencies say rain is on the way eventually and it’s too early to call a drought.
The worries, which extend to one farmer this week making a decision to jettison about three-quarters of the more than 2000 ewes on their property and bigger numbers going through the Stortford Lodge saleyards, comes after three to four months of below-average rainfall south of Tutira, through Napier, Hastings, Central Hawke’s Bay and parts of Tararua.
Jim Galloway, Federated Farmers Hawke’s Bay president now for six years, says it’s dry because it’s Hawke’s Bay, and farmers should be thinking about destocking to avoid getting caught with “no grass” at a time when the meatworks are under greater pressure and the prices start to fall.
“It’s not a drought yet. The grass is drying off, but it is Hawke’s Bay – it’s normal,” he said.
It’s over four years since the last drought declaration in Hawke’s Bay, one which left impacts lasting many months, but Galloway said: “If people are thinking about what to do, that’s the right thing to be doing. It’s planning.”
The Rural Advisory Group meets on Friday for what chair Marcus Buddo says is a “catch-up” on where the weather and forecasts are at, and to check that farmers and the rural community have plans in place in the event of the dry becoming more of a drought.
In some parts rainfall last month was just 20% or less of the averages for October, and Niwa’s October Climate Report says the nationwide high for the month was 29.1C at Whakatū on October 24 – Hawke’s Bay Anniversary show-day, on a day on which winds at Cape Turnagain reached the month’s nationwide peak at 185km/h, and in a month where, by contrast, 10 locations in the South Island had record October rainfall.
Niwa says nationwide Waipawa was the “driest location compared to normal”, with just 16% of its average October rainfall, and by the end of the month, parts of Hawke’s Bay were “very dry” or “extremely dry”, according to the New Zealand Drought Index.
Hawke’s Bay Today’s daily weather figures show rainfall for the year to date from Napier south at 15-40% less than average.
While temperatures could reach between 29-30C on Friday and Saturday in Hastings and Napier, MetService is forecasting showers and rain each day for at least a week from Sunday.
Niwa’s October-December outlook is for below-normal to normal rainfall, but Niwa scientist Gregor Macara says the region is “on the back foot” and “vulnerable” because it is already dry.
The forecast over the next few days includes fine weather with easing northerlies in Hastings, providing idyllic conditions for the Taste Hastings Friday-evening food, wine and music street-party takeover of Heretaunga St East, and for the Central Hawke’s Bay A and P Show in Waipukurau on Saturday, in a weekend of activity dominated by regular sports events and markets.
Doug Laing is a senior reporter based in Napier with Hawke’s Bay Today, and has 51 years of journalism experience, 40 of them in Hawke’s Bay, in news gathering, including breaking news, sports, local events, issues, and personalities.