Dairy company Fonterra announced a mixed first-half result yesterday as the strong consumer and food service result was offset by a weak ingredients business performance.
Commentators are expressing doubt about the company's ability to meet some of its forecasts.
Earnings before interest and tax were down 14.4% to $644million in the six months ended January from the $752million reported in the previous corresponding period.
Total reported profit was down 8.7% to $607million from $665million in the pcp. Revenue was up 5% to $9.2billion.
An interim dividend of 20c per share will be paid next month.
Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said the lower reported profit was due to a higher farm-gate milk price, lower milk collections and sales, and unfavourable relative movements in reference commodity product and non-reference commodity product prices.
That was partly offset by a positive increase in consumer and food service profit, up 30% and supported by increasing margins.
''We note the result is well ahead of our expectations of about $500million, although we highlight timing differences in profitability, an expected impact from lower milk collections and a margin squeeze from increasing input costs appearing weighted to the second half.''
''We see slight down side risk to our short-term earnings. Our current rating is underperform,'' Ms Kinnaird said.
ASB senior rural economist Nathan Penny said the announcement of the 20c interim dividend payment would boost farm cash flows and, to a degree, confidence levels.
But scratching beneath the surface, there were pockets of concern. The normalised reported profit was 9% lower and Fonterra had cut its forecast, making the announcement of the 40c cash dividend forecast seem optimistic, he said.
''In other words, Fonterra expects profits to be lower than previously thought but that its balance sheet is strong enough to allow a higher dividend payment to farmers.
''For our part, we aren't convinced. But in the context of a much improved milk price, this concern may not be material.''
In releasing the results, chairman John Wilson called the first-half result strong.
Fonterra had further reduced net debt, down to $793million, or 11%, and it had a gearing ratio of 46.6% compared with 49.2% in the pcp.
The strong balance sheet meant Fonterra was well placed to develop its markets and position.
The board had confirmed the milk price of $6 per kilogram of milksolids, reflecting global dairy markets along with steady demand and relatively stable prices.
World dairy prices had continued to show signs of volatility but Mr Wilson said the fundamentals were sound.
Dairy prices firmed yesterday. Whole milk powder prices were up 2.9%, and milk fats led prices higher. Overall auction prices lifted 1.7%.
The auction also beat expectations. Whole milk powder futures pricing had indicated a fall in the 4% to 6% range. The result also partially reversed the weak result from the previous auction where whole milk prices had fallen 12.4%.
Fonterra Shareholders Council chairman Duncan Coull said the 20c dividend and $6 kg/ms forecast would lift farmers' confidence and enable them to alleviate cash flow pressures built up during the past few seasons.
However, while Fonterra was well-positioned, it was always best farmers erred on the side of caution with regard to their financial planning.
