Dairy auction prices continue to fall, suggesting they may have reached their peak, but the current season is still shaping up to be a record one for both production and for farmer payouts, say economists.
Five months into the season, economists say that production is up by an estimated 5 to 6 per cent over the same period last year.
And if the weather holds, production - which hit its seasonal peak late last month - will comfortably exceed the previous record, set in 2011-12, of 1.668 billion kg of milk solids.
Rural economists also expect farmgate 2013-14 payouts to be in excess of $8 per kg of milk solids - which again would be comfortably ahead of Fonterra's last record, set in 2010-11, of $7.60/kg.
Yesterday's GlobalDairyTrade auction showed prices overall fell by 1.8 per cent from the previous auction, which had also recorded a decline. The main headline index is now almost 11 per cent below April's highs.