Brexit: 'A messy divorce' says Southland farmer

Jason Miller is a high-profile Southland sheep farmer who is also on the board of The Alliance Group.

He wrote to The Country yesterday with his thoughts on the fallout from the Brexit "divorce" as he calls it so host Jamie Mackay rang him today to pick his brains further.

Here is Jason Miller's email in full:

"Just listening to Winston's comments, while there maybe trade opportunities with Britain going forward there are also risks.

With regard to sheep exports in particular we currently exploit an opportunity to fill a gap in their market due to most of their own production going into Europe.

It is hard to see Europe offering generous trade terms to the British following their exit meaning that product will largely remain in market.

In recent times this has occurred due to the cross rate between Britain and Europe's exchange rate being unattractive meaning the majority of UK production stayed in the local market significantly reducing our price and opportunities.

It is far too simplistic to express a strong view on what the likely outcomes will be, as the attitude that Europe takes to their exit will be important.

Suffice to say short term returns are likely to be impacted due to exchange rates while medium term prospects could be impacted by market dislocation.

Interesting to note that Europe takes 44% of Britain's total exports similar to where NZ was when they joined the common market, while we survived and adapted it was painful and took time.

When you overlay the fact that the British economy has had years of subsidies from Brussels I suspect the transition will be very painful indeed and would be surprised if they received sympathy from Europe in regards to favourable access going forward.

We live in interesting times!!"

Hear Jason Miller's full interview with The Country's Jamie Mackay in the Soundcloud embed below: