Global warming will mainly help New Zealand agriculture, says a Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry senior policy analyst.
John Jackman said the East Coast was likely to become drier and Northland more sub-tropical.
"In general, sectors such as grape-growing will benefit from the drier conditions so long as they can irrigate," he said.
The potential problem of a lack of winter chill to set fruit such as kiwifruit would be dealt with over the 30 to 50-year horizon by plant breeders selecting varieties that did not require the chilling factor.
Mr Jackman expected the dairy industry would also adapt its farming methods to the changing climate.
The feeding of cows was likely to become more capital intensive, with a move away from solely pasture-based feed to more supplementary feeding. That would offset potential impacts leading to a fall in production.
Herald Online feature: Climate change
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
* Draft summary: Climate Change 2001
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United Nations Environment Program
World Meteorological Organisation
Framework Convention on Climate Change
Better weather for our farmers
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