The TPP trade deal could be improved after a few years, Trade Minister Tim Groser said yesterday, acknowledging that New Zealand had lost against powerful forces that limited dairy sector rewards in the 12-country pact.
He hoped the Trans-Pacific Partnership itself would change the political climate over time in the United States, Canada and Japan - the three countries that could not rid themselves of tariffs and quota for New Zealand dairy products.
"When the political markets steady themselves and we are not facing such massive resistance any longer from the United States, Canada and Japan, then there is every reason to believe that in five, 10 years' time - I don't know when - that we will have the political base to accelerate that," he told the Herald.
"That's why you do these agreements. These agreements never stop where they are."
The same dynamic existed after the Closer Economic Relations agreement with Australia, for example.
He expected changes each time a new country joined the TPP, with South Korea first in line.
"The TPP bus will not stop at Atlanta. It will gather speed as the adjustment process changes the politics, and therefore the art of the possible, and it will pick up more passengers, starting I presume with Korea."
He said that when the TPP came up for review, as the China free trade agreement does soon, that could also be a time to look at the deal.
Mr Groser and his team of about 15 negotiators left Atlanta yesterday after a press conference at which US Trade Representative Mike Froman announced the pact.
Trade Minister Tim Groser is positive about the overall result, but less so on dairy. Photo / Getty Images
Dairy was left to last and talks on it went down to the wire, Mr Groser said.
"It just reflects the view that finally, against the combined might of Canada, Japan and the United States, they just couldn't bring themselves to more fully liberalise their dairy sectors."
Mr Groser conceded the elimination of tariffs for some dairy products was "enormously protracted".
But his summary documents also suggest that the deal should not be measured by tariff movements.
"Tariff savings are the narrowest measure of the gains to New Zealand from TPP."
The agreement was met with scorn by opponents, particularly over the "gold-standard" expectations that Mr Groser and Prime Minister John Key had set for dairy in the early days of the negotiation.
Other food producers, though, are winners from the deal.
Many critics are reserving judgment on administrative changes to Pharmac, and on biologics IP and investor state dispute procedures until they see the fine print.
One of Mr Groser's priorities on his return to New Zealand will be to brief Labour MPs about the deal, for which Labour has set some bottom lines.
Asked if a future Government would be able to prevent house sales to foreigners - one of Labour's bottom lines - Mr Groser said: "That is an issue finally of interpretation."
He wanted to talk with Labour before making further comment.
The Government has to produce the text within 30 days. It has the numbers to pass any related legislation, with assured support from Act and United Future, but it would like Labour's support as well.
Mr Groser said as he embarked on his "transparency exercise" now, the criticism while the deal was under wraps "will be shown to be a massive, massive hot air balloon that will be punctured by the facts, now that we can reveal the facts."
Locks tightened
There will be tougher penalties for skirting copyright protection measures such as technological protection measures (TPMs). These technical locks designed to stop DVDs and other items being copied are used by copyright owners to guard or restrict the use of their digital material.
It has not been a criminal offence to circumvent a TPM, but it is to engage in large-scale commercial dealing in devices or other means to enable people to do so. The TPP says New Zealand has "agreed to extend existing laws" to cover this.
Leaks of draft text indicated it could become a criminal offence to breach a TPM, Internet NZ chief executive Jordan Carter said. New Zealand has also agreed to transition its 50-year copyright period to 70 years.
That will mean New Zealand consumers and businesses will forgo savings they otherwise would have made from works such as books, music and films coming off copyright earlier.
Companies can sue
The TPP will allow foreign companies to directly sue the New Zealand government, but will rule out any legal challenges from tobacco companies. Investors can seek compensation from the Government if they feel their investment obligations have been breached.
The Investor State Dispute Settlements (ISDS) provisions are one of the most controversial aspects of the trade negotiations. Trade Minister Tim Groser said the ISDS rules would give New Zealand investors more confidence and certainty in doing business overseas and did not prevent the Government from legislating for "legitimate public policy reasons".
He said the threshold was high for companies to seek arbitration against the Government, and compensation could only be sought if all other attempts at resolution had failed.
ExportNZ executive director Catherine Beard said similar provisions were in previous free trade deals signed by New Zealand, and no cases had been brought. "Very few of [these cases] succeed and the ones that do are done in countries that have a reputation for pretty poor public policy," Ms Beard said.
Medicine concerns
Some doctors are worried about protection for complex advanced medicines made from biological products, and on the fate of funding agency Pharmac.
Doctors for Healthy Trade spokesman Joshua Freeman said: " We think the benefits have been talked up, overstated, and the risks have been talked down."
The fate of biologics - medicines derived from biological sources - was a major sticking point for negotiators.
According to the New York Times, the US sought up to 12 years' protection for drug firms to withhold data needed to produce generic "biosimilars". Others, including Australia, vigorously opposed such long-running monopolies.
Groups opposed to the TPP have long argued that Pharmac, and Kiwis dependent on the agency for medicine, would be a victim of the trade deal.
But Trade Minister Tim Groser said Kiwi consumers would not pay more for subsidised medicines because of TPP and "few additional costs" were expected for the Government in the area of pharmaceuticals. "There will also be no change to the Pharmac model," Mr Groser said.
