Y2K: Planes may stay home...just in case

How much doom and disaster is likely? Our money will not disappear but hospitals may be good places to avoid.

How much doom and disaster is likely? Our money will not disappear but airline schedules may change and hospitals are best avoided.

Waitakere mayor Bob Harvey said recently that New Zealanders might spend the first weeks of 2000 without essential services such as power and water.

Some doom vendors have talked of crashing planes, vanishing bank balances and hospital life-support systems collapsing. But how realistic are these fears?

John Good, special consultant to the Government's Year 2000 Readiness Commission and author of A Survivor's Guide to the Year 2000, says he wishes people will stop predicting planes will fall out of the sky.

"I have never, ever heard anyone [informed] ever suggest that the planes will fall out of the sky," he said. "Nor is at all likely they will get lost."

A Year 2000 Taskforce report on the preparedness of businesses and Government departments, released in September, found that airlines were on track.

So, too, were banks and finance companies, telecommunications companies, the oil industry, railways and some crown agencies.

Disturbingly, most public hospitals, many local authority utilities and some electricity suppliers were lagging in their preparations.

Mr Good says the report deserves more public attention. "It's about the last stake in the ground to measure progress."

Mr Good says airline companies have spent enormous amounts getting ready for the year 2000.

"Also, the people up the front are not going to take their planes up in the air if they have the slightest doubt about being able to complete their sector."

He says the most likely scenario is some airlines changing their schedules.

"It's quite likely that the airlines will elect not to fly, or to fly modified schedules, or elect not to fly to certain ports."

International aviation authorities are grading the safety of airports, including Auckland.

Air New Zealand said in September that it had identified more than 4600 critical components of its systems that needed to be repaired or replaced, at an expected cost of about $17 million.

Bankers' Association executive director Errol Hanna is certain money will not vanish into space either on January 1, or January 5, the first business day of the new year. "The worst that could happen is that there could be temporary glitches in processing because of power failures or telecommunications failures."

It has established a Year 2000 working group, which is testing interbank computer systems to ensure they do not collapse.

Problems with credit cards that expire next year are fixed, and national payment systems are being tested.
Contingency plans are in place because banks depend on a huge range of computer transactions with other businesses.

However, the Reserve Bank will still stockpile cash this year in case people hoard money fearing the collapse of systems running automatic teller machines and other payment systems.

Surveys show that many hospitals are still unprepared, with the prospect of life support and other vital systems failing because of the computer problem.

The head of personal health for the Health Funding Authority, David Moore, says nobody is sure how badly hospitals may be hit by computer failures.

"Some hospitals are very well organised, but there are a lot of medical devices out there and it's impossible to replace them all."

A Ministry of Health survey in September showed that many hospitals had completed less than half the work needed to make sure their communications, infrastructure, computer systems and medical devices were Year 2000 compliant.

The results of a second survey, done in November and showing progress since September, will be released this month.

An Internet site set up by the ministry to provide information on Year 2000 issues includes a long list of medical equipment that could malfunction.

High-risk equipment includes anaesthetic machines, cardiac and respiratory monitors, dialysis equipment, foetal monitors, incubators, sterilisers and x-ray equipment.

An even more potentially disruptive problem is power cuts.

Local Government New Zealand president Kerry Marshall has led the cry for openness from electricity companies about their preparations. Mr Marshall says some councils have found regional electricity retailers evasive.

"I guess we want some assurances power will be provided and we'll do our bit with sewerage and water."

Things are improving he says, with Transpower's adoption of a national coordination role. A meeting it held with local government representatives was reassuring.

Mr Good also says he is impressed with the cooperative industry-wide approach, but still harbours concerns.

"There are a lot of players in the industry and the additional challenge to overcome of all the restructuring, and we know restructuring is very bad for Year 2000 programmes, but I think if there are any disruptions they will be local and isolated."

Mr Marshall admits the taskforce report found local government readiness "a bit wanting" but says much has been done since then.

"What we've tended to focus on are sewerage and water, which could bring urban communities to a halt if they failed," he says.

Councils are being told to prepare worst-case scenarios, and consider having a civil-defence model in place to deliver essential services, just in case.

Mr Good advises householders to store candles, matches and an extra supply of water in case the power or water supply is interrupted.- NZPA