As the Consumer Electronics Show kicks off in Las Vegas, Helen Twose asks technology commentators and insiders for some of their predictions on what will shape the technology and telecommunications landscape in the coming year
BEN GRACEWOOD
Technology commentator and blogger
www.ben.geek.nz
Ben Gracewood says the regulation of mobile termination rates and competitive moves by the mobile network operators highlight how mobile plans will continue to get shaken up in 2011.
He points to all-you-can-eat voice plans put up by new player 2degrees.
"I think we'll see more of that. If there's real competition happening, Vodafone will start feeling that pain and if more people go to 2degrees, will have to react."
Despite deals with two regional players to roll out the Government-backed fibre network, Gracewood doesn't expect to see anything out of ultra-fast broadband this year.
"I think people will be unpleasantly surprised that when it really comes to fruition - the [consumer] cost is going to be huge.
"The retail costs to connect to this great new network are going to be prohibitive," he says.
Initial wholesale pricing is coming out at around $60 a month, and Gracewood says consumers could be paying up to $150 - a price tag that will only appeal to the geekiest.
He says that with Telecom's improvements to its copper-based network, the transition to fibre is going to take a lot longer than some people think.
On the device front, Gracewood says consumers can expect to see a range of gadgets in competition with the iPad but nothing as compelling.
"There'll be a lot more Android slates and some Windows slates but I don't think there will be anything to knock the iPad off."
Gracewood says the release of the Android 3.0 and the updates to the Windows Phone 7 operating system will probably be one of the more interesting stories of the year.
He wouldn't be surprised to see Facebook launch some sort of search or recommendation engine.
"Perhaps some sort of system where you can search for clothes or cars and get back results from what they call your social graph or network of friends."
PAUL BRISLEN
Chief executive, Telecommunication Users Association (TUANZ).
"It's very unusual you get such a confluence of technology changes, customer demand changing, competition and regulation all happening in the one industry at the same time," says Brislen.
A big driver of this change are the Government's ultra-fast broadband and rural broadband initiatives, which are aimed at bringing high-speed connectivity to the majority of New Zealanders.
The underlying principle of the scheme is open-access networks with competition occurring between the companies providing services over the network.
Brislen says it may fundamentally change the way consumers view telecommunications.
"Instead of being stuck with a fairly utilitarian approach, really the world's your oyster. You can have your email hosted for free in LA with unlimited capacity of storage or you can opt for something from the ISP," he says.
"We've just scratched the surface of this whole competitive market and I think once we get down to it, it will be really quite entertaining."
Brislen says mobile operators are now fighting for customers.
"2degrees isn't just doing the same thing only cheaper, but going one step further and doing new things, things the industry either hasn't wanted to think about or hasn't thought about," he says.
KURT RODGERS
Technology director, Alcatel-Lucent
Kurt Rodgers says as new devices are blurring the lines between phones and computers, mobility, cloud computing and bandwidth availability will be the big stories of the future.
Gadgets will be wireless, he says, with consumers moving from a home WiFi network to a mobile network when they leave the house, and on to a corporate WiFi network when they are in the office.
The distinction between mobile networks and fixed networks will need to disappear with telcos being challenged to provide ubiquitous pricing and service levels across the entire network.
"I want to receive the same service on my iPad when I'm at home, when I'm on my mobile network and when I'm in my office but I don't necessarily, because often the bandwidth and the performance and the pricing are different," says Rodgers.
"That's what operators will have to deal with, thinking about how to harmonise price across all access mechanisms."
Key services in this environment could be opt-in advertising, where consumers only get advertisements for products they want, and more payments and loyalty offers being managed by mobile phones rather than by cards in a wallet.
The new data-rich services and demands by consumers for applications and services, available regardless of whether they are on the couch or on the bus, are going to push up bandwidth requirements.
Rodgers says the challenge for network operators will be to provide huge amounts of bandwidth over the mobile, fixed-broadband network and corporate network as people move between them.
PETER GRIFFIN
Technology commentator and manager of the Science Media Centre
www.sciencemediacentre.co.nz
We can expect to see the rise of smart TV in New Zealanders' homes, says Peter Griffin.
Smart TVs integrate the internet into the television or set-top box. Google is already in the market with TV technology bringing together its
search engine with Android and applications.
Griffin says Google TV partners with, rather than replaces, broadcasters and is complex to deliver.
"I'm not sure that Google TV will make it here this year because it needs the partnership with a big cable TV, pay TV or free-to-air provider and it takes a long time to negotiate that.
"But I think we'll definitely see lots of those sorts of devices coming on to the market," Griffin says.
Sony and Microsoft are also adding Freeview tuners to consoles meaning consumers will be ditching separate devices for DVDs, gaming and free-to-air TV in favour of one box.
"That convergence has been talked about for years but is really only just starting to happen."
Staying with consoles, the sensor technology of the Xbox Kinect, which picks up gestures and movements and converts them into gaming signals, has already been hacked.
Griffin says people have been pulling apart Kinect's sophisticated 3D cameras and putting them to work performing tasks such as turning on the Christmas tree lights with the wave of a hand.
He says the technology will continue to develop and become built in to laptops, tablets and home appliances, including for use in 3D video conferencing.
"What's driven that is the success of things like the Kinect and the potential that's been unlocked by people hacking it."
Griffin believes that this year could see a real fight between Google and Facebook in the social networking space.
He says Google has tried to move beyond its services like Gmail, where it has a huge consumer base, into social network-type services but has not had much success and it's a real chink in Google's armour.
"As someone who is really in the Google camp, I'm hanging out for that especially if it's integrated into Gmail because Gmail has become the centre of my work life."
