Scientist crunches numbers on rugby

By RICHARD WOOD

Massey University mathematical scientist Paul Bracewell has confirmed that, at the top level, rugby is a random game - which should be a relief to Kiwis embarrassed by some recent All Black performances.

Bracewell is nearing the end of a three-year project, in conjunction with Eagle Technology's Eagle Sports division, to numerically analyse players. The research has been funded by the Foundation for Research, Science and Technology.

He started rating players in February 2000, but recently added sophisticated statistical techniques known as "neural networking" and "self-organising maps" to improve his ability to give rugby players individual ratings, no matter how the team performs in a particular game. One number now tells whether a player is on form, or is letting the side down.

Bracewell found that, although the All Blacks have the best players, differences between players at the top level are so slim that the outcome of games is unpredictable.

He has had some forecasting success at Super 12 level, and at NPC level, Bracewell said he made 200 per cent profit on his bets in the last competition. While this may worry the TAB, Bracewell's system is more about rating individual players to improve their performance.

"If you look at the whole picture, the whole game, there are actually patterns, a basic way things happen. We can reduce 130 variables down to five to see how well people have tackled, kicked and more, and come up with one number that says how well they've played," he said.

"If there is a problem with that number, you can drill down and see what's going wrong."

Past users of the system include Sky Television, the All Black coach, and Ultimate Rugby. Bracewell says the system with the new statistical methods is ready to go as soon as a client wants it.

He said he hoped it would be relaunched on the international stage in time for the Rugby World Cup next year.