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TOKYO - Shares in videogame maker Nintendo have taken a breather in recent weeks from their extended bull run and analysts say clear direction for the stock is unlikely to emerge until holiday sales data come in.
Nintendo shares surged more than five-fold in the past two years through October on white-hot demand for its DS handheld player and Wii console, making the creator of such game characters as Mario and Zelda Japan's third-most valuable company.
But they have lost 8 per cent since November, underperforming the Nikkei average, which fell 5 per cent.
"No fundamentals have changed. Nintendo has still got strong earnings momentum," said Mitsushige Akino, chief fund manager at Ichiyoshi Investment Management.
"The difference is market participants have now realised Nintendo's potential, and it is pretty much factored in the share price. Back in 2005, no one could image Nintendo being where it is now."
Nintendo's Wii had been considered an "also-ran" in the three-way console race against Sony Corp' PlayStation 3 and Microsoft Corp's Xbox 360.
But the machine, which features a motion-sensing controller that allows gamers direct onscreen plays by swinging it like a racket or sword, has far outsold the PS3 since their launches a year ago, unseating Sony as unrivalled king of the game industry.
Nintendo sold 13.2 million units of the Wii as of the end of September, compared with 5.6 million units of the PS3.
However, there were signs of PS3 sales picking up in recent months in Japan as Sony cut the console price and launched a new version.
Data from research firm Media Create showed domestic sales of the PS3 surpassed the Wii for the first time in the week ending Nov. 11, shaking investor confidence in Nintendo, although the Wii regained the top spot two weeks later.
"People's perception of the PS3 is improving from an underdog to something better, and part of the money that used to flow into Nintendo shares is now going to the Sony stock," said Yoshihisa Okamoto, fund manager at Mizuho Asset Management.
"It would be difficult for Nintendo shares to rise much further from here without such factors as healthy consumer spending in the United States and strong sales of Nintendo products in the Christmas season."
It will be sometime before comprehensive sales data for the year-end shopping season becomes available, but chances are Nintendo's Wii is likely to hold onto its top spot in December as well as in this console cycle, analysts said.
"The PS3 has been doing better recently. But that's partly because there are not enough Wii machines to go around in the United States and Europe," Rakuten Securities analyst Yasuo Imanaka.
"In December, Nintendo launched 'Wii Fit', and the company is traditionally strong in gift-giving season for children."
The Kyoto-based company started selling "Wii Fit" home fitness game in Japan on Dec. 1, breathing fresh life into Wii demand.
The game features a pressure-sensing mat, which looks like a bathroom scale and can sense when a person moves and leans, enabling players to "head" virtual soccer balls and experience ski jumping on a TV screen.
In a longer term, growing support from third-party software developers are expected to help the Wii lure in new users, analysts said.
In a major coup, Nintendo said in October software publisher Capcom Co Ltd would develop the latest version of its blockbuster "Monster Hunter" action game for the Wii.
The game had previously been developed for Sony's consoles and the switch to Nintendo has fed speculation that support for the PlayStation franchise may be slipping.
Underlining high expectations for the Wii, analysts on average forecast a 21 per cent rise in Nintendo's operating profit for the year starting April 2008, beating an estimated 12 per cent gain for Sony, according to Reuters Estimates.
- REUTERS
