KEY POINTS:
Many a starry-eyed entrepreneurial wannabe has been sucked into business oblivion through a misguided belief in what could be called the 1 Per Cent Market Share Fantasy.
The delusion goes something like this: there are more than one billion people in China, Mr Novice Exporter thinks to himself. If I sell my patented kiwifruit-infused dishcloth gift sets to only one per cent of them at $2 gross profit per unit I'll become an instant multimillionaire.
The problem with this approach is that it's actually hellishly hard to convince even 1 per cent of people to buy anything.
So it was interesting to hear Apple boss Steve Jobs mention the 1 per cent figure as part of last week's super-hyped unveiling of the iPhone. Jobs said he expects to sell 10 million iPhones next year, giving the devices a 1 per cent share of the global mobile phone market.
I'm not suggesting Jobs and Dreamy Dishcloth Man are related. If anyone can successfully storm the handset market its Apple. But it will still be hard work.
The iPhone has polarised industry observers. Some have sung its praises while others have drawn up long lists of its apparent limitations.
At first glance the device passes the Apple-grade innovation test: its user interface, the large finger-tap controlled screen which does away with the need for a keypad, is the type of iconic design that has kept its makers ahead of the pack in the past.
Wellington technology entrepreneur Rod Drury was an instant convert, labelling the iPhone thin, sexy and Apple cool on his blog last week. Elimination of the hardware keyboard and buttons makes it just about software, Drury wrote. Therefore manufacturing is much cheaper than anyone else and the need to revise hardware is much less. Yet they can innovate more and distribute upgrades for free.
But critics say the iPhone's 8.9cm screen is a pitfall which makes the device pocket-unfriendly and susceptible to scratching and damage.
And as Microsoft staffer Steve Clayton wrote on his blog: "I'm already thinking of getting shares in the screen wipes business - if this thing sells anything like iPod there's gonna be a lot of greasy screens around."
A major question for Apple is: will the iPhone's size be a barrier to world domination? Mobile phone marketing is increasingly about device convergence, offering consumers a product that reduces the number of gadgets they need to carry around. Will New Zealand buyers be prepared to pay about $900 for the convenience of merging their iPod and cellphone into a single device, particularly if the merged device in question isn't pocket friendly?
Perhaps more importantly, when will they have the option? Not until next year at the earliest. The late arrival, only last month, of an online iTunes Store is a painful reminder for Apple fans that New Zealand is way down the company's list of priorities.
As Drury points out, some neat iPhone features - such as its advanced voice message service - will likely require carrier side support from the mobile network operator serving the phone. Since Apple doesn't have a presence here (just a distributor in the form of listed technology company Renaissance) who will push the development work needed to bridge the technological gaps?
There's also the fact that a version of the iPhone capable of running on Telecom's current network is yet to be developed.
The iPhone falls short on a number of technical specifications and running the device could be unfeasibly expensive in New Zealand given present telco data charges.
Let's hope that issue, at least, pales a little as a more competitive telco market emerges between now and iPhone arrival day.
Before then anything could happen, including a renaming of the device given that another technology heavyweight, Cisco, which owns the iPhone trademark in the US, is suing Apple over its use of the name.
A forced name change would be minor in the wider context for Apple. What's important is that early indications are that the company has hit on a device that has staunch Apple enthusiasts salivating, and this will provide the momentum needed to reach Jobs's initial 1 per cent goal.
Nokia (the world's largest mobile player with 30 per cent of the global market) and Motorola (next with about 20 per cent) needn't panic yet.
The Business Herald understands, however, that in response to the iPhone, Nokia is to give away a free kiwifruit-infused dishcloth gift set with every handset sold.
