Coming soon to a computer near you: Microsoft's new operating system, Windows Vista. But first you might need to get new computers.
That's because the long-awaited Windows update - now expected in January - is expected to pack some heavy-duty hardware requirements, particularly in graphics.
Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft has yet to complete the system requirements for Vista, but David Rayner, Microsoft New Zealand client product marketing manager, played down Vista's hardware needs compared to Windows XP.
"While it is too early to finalise hardware requirements, most PCs shipped in the last two years, and all new PCs in the shops next January, should be able to run Vista."
But some industry observers are saying Vista's expected requirements will be so demanding that while many desktops and notebooks will run the new operating system, more than half of the PCs in the world won't be able to take full advantage of it.
"My guess would be that 60 per cent is easily the number, and it could be higher than that," says Ben Bar-Haim, vice-president of software for Canadian graphics card-maker ATI Technologies.
Most PCs and notebooks out there now - especially the business-oriented models owned by many companies - run on so-called integrated graphics, where the chip is built on to the computer's motherboard. Businesses prefer integrated chips, Bar-Haim says, because they tend to cost less than "discreet" graphics or standalone video add-in cards.
To fully run Vista, he says, users will likely need to upgrade to either a high-end integrated chip (which means upgrading the motherboard itself) or to a high-powered graphics card. No matter which option companies decide on, the cost of a typical business-oriented PC or notebook will be pushed up, Bar-Haim says.
The graphics system will need to be able to run Windows Display Driver Mode and have between 128 and 256 megabytes of video RAM, according to an estimate from IDC. That's a lot more graphics horsepower than businesses are used to putting on the average worker's desktop.
There's also the issue of memory for the computer itself. While Vista's requirements are still sketchy, Microsoft has confirmed it will need at least 512 megabytes of system RAM to run. ATI's Bar-Haim said that number is a minimum, and users should look to invest in at least one gigabyte if they want Vista to run smoothly.
The hardware requirements stem mainly from Vista's completely rebuilt graphics interface, which promises eye candy such as translucent and three-dimensional windows. Vista will offer at least two different graphics modes - the higher-end Aero, which promises all the new bells and whistles, and a less-demanding Classic, which will be similar to the current Windows XP look. The Classic mode will not require the hardware upgrades, and users will still be able to take advantage of some of Vista's other features, Microsoft says.
Among these are significant improvements to security - coincidentally, also in the graphics area. A major source of security leaks in Microsoft operating systems is the Windows frame buffer, the aspect of the system responsible for processing the computer's graphics.
"PCs today are very exposed to bad applications that go and grab information from the frame buffer and steal it," Bar-Haim explains.
Vista corrects this problem by effectively sealing off graphics from the rest of the computer - much like a ship is compartmentalised to prevent a leak from flooding it. The compartmentalisation approach will also prevent generalised system crashes, Microsoft says.
The same idea has been applied to Internet Explorer 7, the company's updated web browser. Any malware that gets into Explorer will stay there and won't be able to spread to the rest of the computer and its other programs, says Microsoft.
The look of the new graphics system is not just a cosmetic facelift. Some analysts, in fact, are boldly predicting Vista will profoundly change the way we use computers.
"We are on the cusp of a new era in computing" says a report by IDC last October. Within the next five years, the report says, high-performance graphics will be common for normal workplace tasks.
New graphic applications, such as mapping - think Google Earth - and video conferencing are going to become commonplace, it says, as will the use of larger and multiple monitors to increase the amount of usable screen space.
Vista will also spur "data visualisation", or the dumbing down of processes such as complicated number crunching into more easily understood graphic displays.
Vista will also give system administrators much more power to limit users' access privileges, as well as what system changes they can make and what programs they can run on their computer.
Still, despite the potential benefits, it will likely be some time before businesses rush out and upgrade to Vista en masse, says Liam Gunson, market analyst for hardware research at IDC New Zealand.
"A lot of corporates and businesses will be holding off before they jump into Vista when it's launched. These companies aren't exactly going to take it up straight away. They may wait for the next beta."
New Zealand, however, is unique in that a large number of low-end consumer notebooks have shipped in the past two years.
"It could bring a bit of the refresh [cycle] forward," Gunson says.
Hurdle on horizon for Vista acceptance
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