Coaster prepares for plague of millennium bugs

By Adam Gifford

If things start going wrong in your household about January 1, John Howard has some advice on who you should turn to - yourself.

"The Government won't be able to help us, so it's selfish not to make some preparations. You can't expect to bludge on your mates who have taken prudent steps," he said.

Mr Howard has been taking prudent steps since he moved to the West Coast near Hokitika four years ago, pursuing a largely self-sufficient lifestyle with some income coming in from freelance journalism.

He had a youthful stint as a Cobol programmer back in the 1970s, and has a wary cynicism about claims of Y2K compliance.

"Everyone is self-reporting. There is no auditing to see if they are compliant with end-to-end testing.

"When they say they are Y2K ready, what does that mean? Do they have contingency plans drawn up?"

Mr Howard's contingency plans include wiring his house to take a generator. The $2000 Honda generator is big enough to keep his freezer cold, and given the freezer is storing up to $1500 of food it seems a reasonable investment.

He has not forgotten his neighbours. If needed, the generator will be shared with the other 12 households on his rural back road - they will supply their own petrol.

"I don't believe everything will happen at once. There will be brown-outs and spikes in power because we have got an interconnected system with a national grid. I expect if there are problems, power will be rerouted to the major centres."

Mr Howard has a shortwave radio for contacting the outside world, water from the roof, septic tanks, a reconditioned wood and coal range and a pressurised kerosene lamp with plenty of spare mantles.

Then there are spare batteries and chainsaw and 4-stroke oil in case the oil refineries reduce production to a few essential lines.

He plans to have three months' supply of food, including what's in his freezer, dehydrated and vacuum-packed goods, tinned foods, the animals in the paddock and fresh vegetables from the garden (grown from natural seed, not the sterile hybrids).

Dry food items are repackaged in vacuum packs, so they won't go off.

"If things get bad, items like toilet paper and feminine products will become tradable commodities," Mr Howard said.

"The problem is perception that it is going to create panic. With the oil crisis in 1973, people realised there was not enough oil to fill everyone's tanks so we ended up having carless days.

"It's the same with Y2K. People will fill up in December and have 10 gallon drums in the back of the car as well."

That is a fear police and fire services are already taking into account in their planning for the millennium rollover.

Mr Howard said getting ready for Y2K was in many ways similar to preparing for an earthquake - a prudent measure on the West Coast at least.

Stockpiling made sense because the distribution system no longer carried large inventories.

"It's now just-in-time rather than just-in-case ordering, so if there is a massive shift in the way people purchase products, there will be a shortage of supply.

"So if everyone runs out and gets baked beans at the same time there will be a shortage. People can't manufacture enough to meet changes in demand.

"A supermarket warehouse is now an 18-wheeler truck trundling down a highway."

Mr Howard believes the Government should have done more to warn people what was coming.

"By not allowing businesses to make Y2K work tax deductible, they sent the wrong signals right from the start. And Treasury are so far off track it's not funny.

"I think the Government now has responsibility to be more transparent and honest about what will happen. It should be saying 'there's a large possibility you could be without power for 24 to 48 hours so be prepared to have enough food'. I'd rather know the worst so I can prepare for it.

"If nothing happens, if I tell you there is a problem and nothing happens, fine. At least you will be eating well. You owe it to yourself and your family to take prudent steps."