KEY POINTS:
In my last post I pointed out that Apple generally steers clear of high-volume, low margin, low-cost products. New notebook sales figures from the States prove the point.
Doom, gloom, predictions dire, toil and trouble blah blah - but Apple's relative notebook market share continues to expand, defying all expectations. Meanwhile, Windows-based laptop sales are in the doldrums.
eWeek, in its Microsoft Watch column (this is not an Apple fan site) reports that Mac laptops are showing strong gains.
Unit share for Windows based laptops was down to 80 per cent of the market. But that means 'only' 20 per cent of notebooks sold are Macs - except that three years ago it was more like 5-9 per cent, depending on model and region.
So while 80 per cent still sounds like a clear advantage, measured in dollars the difference is all the more dramatic. Market share by dollar for Windows-based laptops was down to 65 per cent. The eWeek report's author Joe Wilcox says this dollar figure is hugely significant because it means for every three dollars spent on notebooks at retail, one of those dollars went to a Mac.
Apple's strategy of higher absolute and average selling prices for premium class hardware-software combinations has clearly been paying off. Apple's lowest-cost laptop sells in the States for $1099 (currently about NZ$1631 - on the NZ Apple Store the lowest cost MacBook is listed at $1799 inc GST, or $1600 without). By comparison, most Windows OEMs offer at least one model below US$500 (about $742), with some laptops and netbooks selling for less than US$300 (about NZ$445).
According to both Gartner and IDC analysts, notebook computers in general still fit the growth category. Portable shipments are forecast to reach 148.2 million units this year (so IDC reckons - that would mean nearly 30 million lovely new Mac laptops being sold, according to the '20 per cent' figure). Worldwide year-over-year growth rate is expected to be 37.2 per cent, but a strong 44.7 per cent of that will be outside the United States, making Apple's gains in such an important computing category perhaps all the more shocking to PC vendors.
The differences in absolute and average selling prices are apparent in year-over-year growth - Windows notebook revenues grew by 1.5 per cent. Apple Mac laptops grew by 30 per cent, according to NPD. Unit growth was higher, too: 10 per cent for Windows-based lappies, compared with 35 per cent for Macs. Windows still has one big advantage, of course - PC laptop sales are growing off a much larger base of PC users.
Wilcox picks these figures may still produce lower-cost Apple laptops though, at least if growth is to be maintained. This comes about when you look at the very cheap laptop categories encapsulated by the Asus Eee PC. The so-called 'netbook' style mini-laptop first ran Linux; Vista's hardware requirements were too high. Until Microsoft licensed Windows XP Home for the new emerging mobile category.
But Intel's new Atom processors have further opened up the category. Pioneering work on Apple's overpriced, underpowered but technologically marvellous MacBook Air helped drive Intel development. Atom processors and other new components demand less power and produce less heat. Many of the newer Atom-based netbooks can, as a result, even run Windows Vista - but Atom-based netbooks cost more than the ones based on older tech.
In a circular fashion, this once again opens up possibilities for a cheaper Mac mini-laptop. Apple was in on the ground floor with Intel developing the new components and has already developed a version of Mac OS X that can run on iPhones and the iPod touch. So it's a proven fact that Apple can make an exceedingly lean version of OS X (the full version, as installed on my MacBook Pro laptop, weighs in at 3.75GBs).
Not only that, Apple has already stated that the next version of OS X, so-called 'Snow Leopard,' will offer few new features and will, in effect, just be a leaner, meaner and faster version of this current Leopard version.
Meanwhile, if you want a Mac, you still buy at higher prices. For your money you get a secure operating system (despite strident claims of incipient Mac hacks and malware that never seem to have produced actual viruses - so far), with built-in easy access to key devices including the iPod and iPhone, along with many cameras, printers and smart phones.
You get built-in applications for imaging, video, music creation, word processing, email, internet and more, plus access to a series of applications that win regular praise for usability and cooperative function. And you get beautiful looking hardware.
Hey, Macs even run Vista no sweat. I recently overheard two Microsoft execs saying Vista runs best on Macs, and at the Adobe CS4 launch three days ago, every PC I saw at the venue was an Apple MacBook Pro.
Whatever Apple does in the next few days, it's bound to make headlines.
- Mark Webster mac.nz
