KEY POINTS:
Apple's had a good year - and I will talk about that in my end-of-year wrap-up after Christmas - but, as we all know, there's this recession thing. So how will Apple fare in 2009?
In theory, people should be looking for bargain basement PCs and Taiwanese netbooks more than ever, avoiding expensive Macs leading to a bad year for Apple.
That's what Morgan Stanley's Kathryn Huberty said would happen in September, when she lowered Apple's rating twice in two weeks, and she still holds to this line of reasoning as Fortune on CNN Money reported.
The trouble is, it flies in the face of actual Macintosh unit sales over the first 12 months of this recession. Mac unit sales grew nearly 40 per cent for 2008, with its share of the premium personal computer segment almost doubling.
Turley Muller of Financial Alchemist thinks he knows why Huberty has been wrong: "if you're buying an Intel-based PC, what's the point of difference? There's really only - in the mainstream - Intel boxes running Apple's OS. All the other suppliers offer similar boxes with much the same system, while OS X Leopard is still different. So, as Muler writes "Windows machines increasingly compete on price, and price alone."
And that's why he also thinks, in the Windows market, PC demand is shifting into the lower end (ultra-cheap and/or netbooks) while high-end buyers are turning to Apple's offerings. You can read more of Muller's reasoning here.
Whoever's right in this argument, Apple is still facing the same strictures as everybody else - less spending, fuelled by financial fear and job losses. While the obvious answer is to make cheaper products, this is the antithesis of Apple's ethos of high-value machines (not to mention their high profit margins). This is the company that enshrined 'think different' as a mission statement - so what will Apple do?
Some commentators think Apple is suffering a sales downturn in desktops right now, because their desktop offerings are a bit tired - they are. But it doesn't take a genius to figure out that Apple is almost certain to release new machines at the Macworld Conference and Expo (January 5th), so you'd be a mug to buy an iMac or mini now unless your need is really urgent. This kind of buyer information (under iMac, mini rumours) is more readily available than ever, thanks to the internet.
But will any new Macs revealed in January be enough to keep Apple safe? Yair Reiner, an analyst for Oppenheimer, wrote "The question isn't just 2009, it's what happens after that. What are going to be the next set of products that continue to drive the shift from Windows to Apple?" Good question.
If Apple, for example, does bring out quad-core iMacs with better Nvidia graphics yet costing the same as current iMacs, certainly sales will be assisted. A new Mac mini, by far the cheapest Mac Apple makes, may even appeal to those who need lower-cost machines - especially if they already have a USB keyboard and mouse plus a monitor, perhaps from a PC that begs replacement. Since the mini is basically a screenless MacBook, it's pretty clear what its specs will most likely be.
If, as people suspect, a 2009 mini is made from recyclable aluminium, has a bigger hard drive, a faster processor and more RAM capacity and again, costs about the same as the current mini, that might be a big help too. And remember that when Snow Leopard is released, with its streamlined system, all existing Macs that can handle it will run faster still.
This may, with luck and management, mean that the rapid rise of Apple over the last three years will continue, or at least that it won't stall, whereas some Windows PC manufacturers already look like they're about to freefall.
First, ten years ago, Steve Jobs' mission was to get the faithful back on board. He did that. Then Apple went for the PC users.
Of course, long term Mac users may feel a little weird about all these new Mac users, especially if they were using PCs for years before changing. They didn't see the value of Macs back then, while the small coterie of existing Apple devotees defended their beleaguered beliefs.
At the end of the day, of course, Apple Inc is 'just another' corporation, capable of acts that seem out of step with devotee fervour. Like the sudden, late announcement that Jobs would not be keynoting the last Apple-attended Macworld - not to mention Apple quitting Macworld thereafter.
Wired magazine says Apple's ubiquitous presence in pop culture, in the news headlines and even in politics proves it's "no longer special to be a member of the Mac cult."
The magazine just published a list of examples showing just how mainstream Apple products have become.
One way or another, we will live in interesting times. May they also be good.
Mark Webster mac.nz
