A multi-channelled future

By KARYN SCHERER

Tom McEwan has seen the future, and he is convinced it won't necessarily be broadcast on a television set.

The Scottish-based consultant should know - he has worked at the leading edge of the media industry, in radio, newspapers and television.

And lest anyone accuses him of not knowing the local market, the PA Consulting Group partner can point to a career which includes, among other things, a stint with TVNZ.

In Auckland catching up with clients and local PA Consulting staff, however, he is reluctant to talk about TVNZ's digital plans, put on ice by the Labour Government this year.

While he happily confirms the proposal was "as advanced as anything else I've seen," he is diplomatic when asked if New Zealand risks falling behind the rest of the world in its digital development.

"There are two sides. One is that in a couple of years' time some of the technology will have rationalised itself. There are many, many different ways of delivering this stuff. On the other hand, where does the audience go in the meantime?"

In New Zealand, of course, the answer is possibly TVNZ's pay-TV competitor, Sky TV. And Mr McEwan should know better than most what that could mean.

He was hired for the TVNZ project largely because of his previous experience with the BBC, where he not only developed its digital TV plans, but also helped launch BBC Online.

While he concedes the cost of converting to digital transmission remains a hot issue for both broadcasters and their viewers, he is also convinced commercial broadcasters will be able to make digital TV pay.

About 30 per cent of British households now have access to digital TV, mostly through Sky TV's sister company, BSkyB.

Through its deal with Californian software company OpenTV, BSkyB has for the past eight months offered customers interactive services such as e-mail, weather updates and online shopping.

The same services, he notes, are being introduced to Sky TV customers in New Zealand, and if the British experience is any example, just under half of all subscribers will soon be using such services at least once a week.

For retailers, he believes, the news is mostly good. He is aware of a CD and video retailer who claims sales made to BSkyB viewers "have surpassed their wildest dreams."

"Around 6 or 7 per cent have bought something already, so it's definitely changing viewers' habits."

While he agrees television will remain a crucial medium for hawking companies' wares in the future, he is sceptical that it will eventually overtake other channels, such as personal computers, mobile phones and hand-held computers.

"I think the way it's going to go is, you will get a slice of services across all those channels. If you're doing banking, for example, you will be able to do a minimum number of transactions on every platform, but you will be able to do more on the web than everywhere else."

In the United States, he notes, the internet has not necessarily cannibalised television, and nor does he expect it will.

As for whether all these channels will eventually converge, " it's a bit further away than they would have you believe," he suggests.

"Certainly, in the UK and Europe, retailers and service providers are looking at multi-channel space, and how they should deliver their services across every channel - not one or the other."

Even newspapers, he believes, will eventually make money from the web by selling advertising.

While banner advertising is losing favour with clients, he is convinced the clever use of technology will prove lucrative in the long term.

"Very niche, targeted advertising is the way it's going. A lot of technology on the web is based on a much more focused level. The other side of that is that a lot of people are not comfortable with that model because it feels like manipulation and all the rest of it, but essentially that's what happens now - it's just more scattergun in its approach."