Yachting: Stage is set for classic Sydney-Hobart joust

The battle between Alfa Romeo (pictured) and Wild Oats XI is likely to come down to who makes the least mistakes. Photo / Getty Images

The 65th edition of the Sydney to Hobart yacht race is shaping up as an uncharacteristically straightforward sleigh ride south for the big boats, with the weekend's forecast northeasterly putting the race record in danger.

The annual pilgrimage to Hobart, on the island of Tasmania, will see a fleet of over 100 yachts venture out from Sydney Heads on Boxing Day, to take on the sprint southwards across the fearsome Bass Strait. This stretch of water has a formidable reputation that is richly deserved; in 1998 six sailors lost their lives when a fierce storm ripped through the fleet as it battled its way to the Tasmanian finish line.

Earlier in the week the long range weather model suggested there could be boat breaking seas once again in 2009, with strong southerlies pushing against the fast flowing east Australian current. But yesterday the weather gurus were reassessing original predictions, with more moderate conditions forecast.

The latest, and now most likely, weather model suggests there could be strong northerlies. Should that come to pass, routing data suggests a new race record.

The two models agree more on likely conditions after the first 12 hours, with freshening nor-easterly breezes on Sunday, before a possible switch to 20 knot westerly breezes on Monday night.

Over the past 64 years, the Sydney-Hobart has become an icon of Australia's summer sport and interest in this year's race is as high as ever.

Never before have so many supermaxis assembled for the 628-nautical mile dash. The race for line honours will be fought among the five ocean monsters, as well as four maxis, making it the best drag race to Hobart in the colourful history of one of the world's most revered ocean races.

Defending champion Wild Oats XI is the odds-on favourite to win its fifth consecutive Sydney to Hobart beginning on Saturday, but its skipper Mark Richards is finding little comfort in being the punters' pick.

"We're not kidding ourselves. This will be the toughest-ever contest when it comes to being first to Hobart," Richards said.

"If we are to defend our crown we have to be perfectly prepared."

Richards singled out the Alfa Romeo, skippered by Kiwi ex-pat Neville Crichton, as his stiffest opposition and believes the New Zealand entrant has the horsepower to win this year's six-way supermaxi showdown.

He said with Wild Oats and Alfa Romeo almost identical in boat speed, the race will most likely to be decided by who makes the least mistakes.

"There is nothing between the two boats in speed," Richards said. "In the Hobart, it could come down to sail selection and sail changes."

Of the remaining super maxis in the fleet, ICAP Leopard, skippered by Brit Mike Slade is the next favourite. Slade is chasing an elusive Rolex line honours treble in the race to Hobart, having claimed wins in the Fastnet and Middle Sea Races. No yacht has won the big three in the same year.

Slade has been doing plenty of talking in the lead-up to the ocean classic, and believes Leopard will be the boat to beat if the weather is on the nose.

The competition between these three boats should help to push one of them, given favourable conditions, to break the race record which stands at 1 day, 18 hours, 40 minutes, 10 seconds, set by Wild Oats XI in 2005.

Wild Oats and Alfa Romeo are expected to lead the fleet in downwind conditions; Leopard could reach Hobart first, if the slog south is mainly upwind.

Once again a number of high-profile Australian sports personalities are involved with various campaigns. Former world surfing champion Mark Occhilupo will help crew American super maxi Rapture, while Investec LOYAL will feature star-studded multi-sport crew of world champion boxer Danny Green, Olympic swimming gold medallist Grand Hackett and rugby stars Phil Waugh and Phil Kearns.

But the group aren't just involved in the race for the photo ops. Both 100ft super maxis are expected to be keen to push for line honours.

Even more competitive, though, is the race for the Tattersall's Cup, the trophy awarded to the outright winner on handicap, and the holy grail of Australian yachting.

There are a number of boats in the fleet eyeing up the trophy, including the red hot 60-footers Loki and Limit, the British 72 footer RAN, which won the Rolex Fastnet, and a couple of grand prix TP52s, which could be a chance if it is a light downhill race.