KEY POINTS:
Strong south-easterly winds could make for a helter skelter start this morning in the Coastal Classic yacht race from Auckland to Russell.
More than 200 boats are lining up in the 119-nautical-mile race. The forecast earlier in the week was for a blustering 35-knot south-easterly, expected to hit the competitors at the start.
But if they survive that, the fleet are then expected to struggle in a dying breeze.
The race favourite is 12m Australian catamaran Taeping, believed to be the fastest multihull in its home country. Although it hasn't raced much it has an extraordinary power-to-weight ratio and an experienced crew.
But Taeping will be keeping their eye on Line 7 Marine, a 9m trimaran tipped to be almost unbeatable in light air.
It has an experienced crew in Olympic Finn sailor Dan Slater, America's Cup sailor Ed Smythe and highly regarded yachting weatherman Grant Beck.
Slater is one of three owners of Line 7 Marine, which was designed and built by Team New Zealand structural designer Andrew Kensington.
Kensington built it for himself in 1998 but his work commitments meant he never got to sail it. For the past seven years it has sat in storage.
Slater, who has competed in the race before, said the ideal conditions for the trimaran would be a light southerly and flat seas.
"We are an outside chance really because of the size of the boat. Taeping, you'd have to say, is pretty much the favourite," he said.
"If the breeze has got some west in it they'll be really fast - the same with X-Factor, the big cat.
"In the monohulls you'll have to say Wired will again be pretty quick. V5 is back in the water - the Transpac 52 with the canting keel - and Pussy Galore. Those canting-keel 50 footers [15m] are going to be pretty quick."
Slater said the race was often a survival of the fittest.
Although the route is more or less a straight line, there are a few tricky tactical decisions which need to be made around Cape Rodney and Cape Brett.
"The forecast is for the wind to die out," Slater said. "If it dies then it gets pretty tricky. It starts getting dark and you have to decide whether to go through the hole in the rock because you can't really see if there is any breeze in the gap and it is quite a long way around the outside of the hole in the rock.
"Depending of what time we get there and what the current is like when we get there, that can be quite an influencing factor."
Split Enz still holds the race record, set in 1996.
"I don't think we are going to have a run like that, that was a howling easterly," Slater said.
"They reached to Cape Brett, then had a spinnaker ride to the finish. It couldn't have been more perfect for a record run.
"We are too small to break the overall record but Taeping could."
The race is perhaps Slater's last opportunity for a not-so-serious sail before he steps up his Olympic preparations. Representing New Zealand in the Finn class, Slater will train in the Southern Hemisphere over the next few months and compete in the world championships in Melbourne in January.
He will then alternate his time between Auckland, Europe and the Olympic venue Qingdao.
"Qingdao is typically a light venue. When there does seem to be breeze it lasts for about three days," he said.
"It is quite possible there might be no wind for seven days and the races could be sailed in that three-day window and we could actually sail in over 15 knots for the majority of the regatta. It is actually not that easy to prepare for."
Which sounds a bit like today's Coastal Classic.
