Wynne Gray: Wales desperate for a win, but history is against them

NZ Herald·

18 Nov, 2014 04:00 PM3 mins to read

Wales coach Warren Gatland is confident Beauden Barrett will get the nod to wear the All Blacks No10 jersey against his team at the Millennium Stadium on Sunday. Barrett is up against three other first-fives - Dan Carter, Aaron Cruden and Colin Slade - for the starting position but Kiwi Gatland today wasted no time in telling the media who he thinks will be calling the shots. At the Wales' team announcement press conference, skipper and loose forward Sam Warburton was asked who he thought would be selected, only to be interrupted by Gatland, who said: "It will be Barrett, I think."

Wales under coach Warren Gatland have done well in Europe but are burdened by an alarming record against their Southern Hemisphere rivals.

There is an alarming symmetry about the side's results against the All Blacks, Wallabies and Springboks since Gatland took over in 2008 and Wales' record against the All Blacks since their last success in 1953.

Both read: played 26, won 1, lost 25.

Those who watch and study Wales perform in the international arena see scant evidence that trend will alter when they play the All Blacks this weekend in Cardiff.

In the seven years Gatland has overseen Wales' campaigns, they are bottom of the heap when their results against the Southern Hemisphere are compared with England, Ireland and Scotland.

In that time England have played 25, won 4, drawn 1; Ireland have played 17, won 3 and drawn 1; and Scotland have played 13 and won 3.

Wales have won three Six Nations crowns and been to a World Cup semifinal with Gatland but cannot wrestle satisfaction from their duels with the Big Three south of the equator.

Gatland's time with Wales began with a flourish in 2008 as they travelled to Twickenham and beat England and went on to win the Grand Slam. They could not beat the Springboks away or at home but nailed the Wallabies 21-18 late that year.

That remains their solitary success with Gatland against the Big Three and an equally rare memory for men like Jamie Roberts and Alun Wyn Jones who were involved that late November day.

This week the All Blacks are in Cardiff for the 14th and final international of their season.

They've had a mixed year with plenty of sublime rugby which spooks any other side and periods of unconvincing work where they struggle to deal with some of the rudiments of the game.

There were several solitary point victories against England, a draw with the Wallabies and a loss to the Springboks which created uncertain frowns mixed with exhilarating displays against the Wallabies in Auckland and Argentina in La Plata.

In several games the All Blacks' mental resilience helped get them home. They will need that again this week even though Wales have made an erratic start to their November campaign.

If there is one game, one match, one test Wales want to win more than any, it is this contest; for so many reasons and so many generations who follow rugby in the principality.

This test will be the main focus in their pre-Christmas programme where all sorts of mixed results will be forgotten if they can find their way to the victory podium.

A win will be an enormous fillip as they work through to the World Cup. Victory would allow Gatland, his staff and the players to shed the crushing hold the All Blacks bring.

Will it happen? The answers are in the unlikely to implausible range of probability. Wales have enough skilled individuals but it's whether they can bring a collective heat to unsettle the All Blacks and keep ticking over the scoreboard.

Even then they'd need to keep their nerve. Ireland last season and Scotland last weekend eyed fame and tripped over their uncertainty. Odds are Wales won't get that close.