Tight Five with Elliott Smith: A warning for the Blues ahead of the Super Rugby playoffs

The Blues after warming up. Photo / Photosport

OPINION:

An explanation...

I'm not the type to believe in fairytales, but La Rochelle's victory over Leinster in the European Champions Cup final is worth noting for the Blues ahead of the Super Rugby playoffs. There are some differences, but Leinster were virtually the full Ireland side and about $1.20 favourites, with the French side in the vicinity of $5. Not a rank outsider, but an unexpected victory nonetheless. It was a remarkable game and continued the rise and rise of Ronan O'Gara as a coach of note in the world – expect him to get an international gig once a few become available after the 2023 Rugby World Cup. The French side's victory just maybe offers some hope for the lower ranked teams in a Super Rugby playoffs.

An observation...

It wouldn't be a rugby column in this day and age without mentioning the Super Rugby playoffs. We've heard plenty about the fact eight teams qualify and the Highlanders advance with just four wins, but the picture got even more confusing this week: The Super Rugby programme was issued with a suggestion that semifinal spots would be determined based on which quarter-final each team has played while their tournament website says it's based on ranking. A quick email to SANZAAR's headquarters confirmed it is the latter – for example if the Blues win and the Crusaders don't, the Queensland side will travel to Eden Park next week, although whether it really matters come the end of the weekend will be another matter entirely.

A question...

Did I provoke the stadium karma gods last week? It was somewhat of a cruel joke that I bemoaned the delays to the new Christchurch stadium last Friday in this column and now this week it could be put on hold permanently. Delay (possibly for good), revise or push on. It's like a recurring nightmare. Just build the thing and get on with it. The stadium won't be built until 2026 now, if at all. We are appallingly bad at sorting sporting infrastructure in this country – Auckland is still suffering for not taking the chance at a waterfront stadium 15 years ago. In Australia, you can barely walk down a major city without seeing a quality stadium.

A prediction...

The Hurricanes to beat the Brumbies in Canberra, then the top-three ranked sides (Blues, Crusaders, Chiefs) all win to leave an all-New Zealand Super Rugby semifinals series. The Brumbies, after looking so good a few weeks ago in that win over the Chiefs, have had the wheels come off in recent weeks with losses to the Crusaders, Blues and Moana Pasifika. If we can get four New Zealand sides into the semifinals, can it really be said the gap has closed between New Zealand and Australia?

A suggestion...

The Silver Lake saga has not been a great look for New Zealand's game, whatever side of the fence you sit on it - the process has been unedifying and repetitive. It's felt like the deal has been on the verge of being done for about 18 months now. While I know some won't be happy that it's been signed, at least we can finally stop wondering whether it's the right thing for the game and begin, over the coming years, to analyse it properly rather than through hypotheticals. It may be a mistake, it may not - but at least we will finally have some hard data to look at in the years to come rather than guesswork.