Tennis: Paris set for showdown

There are, of course, other players involved but the story of the French Open tennis tournament comes down to two people: Roger and Rafa.

They have always been rivals but this is building into one of the finest and hardest-fought in the history of the game. Rafael Nadal's win over Federer in the recent Madrid Masters has set up Roland Garros for what seems to be a classic showdown.

The knee-jerk response has been to make Nadal the hot favourite as a result of Madrid - played on the same clay courts as Paris and the surface on which Nadal's record is superior to Federer's. Played 12, of which Nadal has won 10, Federer 2.

There is no question Nadal is back - and that his suspect knees have mended. His chasing and retrieving seem as good as ever, to the extent his rather ordinary serving is rarely a factor.

His service has improved but no matter what Nadal serves - and what the opponent returns - his incredible fetching and returning usually keeps him in the match; allowing him to wrest the rally; to demoralise the opponent with a barrage of testing ground strokes.

To his vicious forehand, Nadal has added a driving backhand which is far more a weapon than it used to be.

His forehand is typically fizzing with spin and is usually aimed at the Federer backhand - a beautiful, languid thing but which is by no means infallible as it attempts to cope with Nadal's spin.

It all looks good for Rafa at Roland Garros but only his most ardent fans will figure Federer has no chance of beating the Spaniard.

The Madrid victory was in straight sets, sure, but much closer than most realise. The match was won with, of all things, Federer hitting an air shot on match point as the ball took a wonky bounce.

In terms of shock value, it was like Usain Bolt running last in a 100m final; Don Bradman being bowled first ball in his final knock; Michael Phelps missing a tumble turn. So the image was set in the minds of many of Federer as a beaten man, reduced to a club hacker's swipe by Nadal's supremacy.

The reality is a little different. In that match, both Nadal and Federer won 84 points, even though Nadal won 6-4 7-6. That shows just how small the gap is between these two.

Federer has had an odd year. He won the Australian Open but has had some results not quite in keeping with his place as world No 1.

His losses on clay - to young Latvian Ernests Gulbis and Spaniard Albert Montanes - were not so much of a surprise as his losses on hardcourt to players he would normally sweep aside (Thomas Berdych and Marcos Bhagdatis).

But Federer is a big-match player and superb at building to a peak. He won this tournament last year when Nadal - affected by tendinitis that had some questioning his career and also by the emotional toll of his parents' split - was blasted off the court by big-hitting Swede Robin Soderling.

He is also the only other player to have beaten Nadal on a clay court in recent times - at the Madrid Masters last year and in Hamburg in 2007.

That snapped Nadal's 81-match winning streak on clay with a 2-6 6-2 6-0 victory that saw Nadal win only four games in three sets; Federer's most clear-cut win ever over Nadal. While last year's Madrid win came in Nadal's unhappy season, those defeats always leave a mental door ajar just a crack for a ray of doubt to lance through.

Federer could also amend his game plan for Roland Garros. Nadal, 15-0 in matches on clay this year, has lost just two sets on clay all year - one to Gulbis and one to another recent visitor to the Heineken Open in Auckland, Spain's Nicolas Almagro.

Both used withering bursts of ground strokes to unsettle the Majorcan (as Soderling did in the 2009 French Open). Gulbis, in particular, used drop shots effectively. It was noticeable, in Madrid, that Federer won many points off Nadal with his drop shot and the same kind of boom-plunk strategy could come into play if these two meet in the final.

Which is more than likely, given that possible upsetters like Juan Martin del Potro and Nikolay Davydenko are out injured. Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic have their supporters too, with the latter having pushed Nadal hard on clay before. Gulbis, now 27 in the world, is rated by some as a potential banana skin as well.

But this looks for all the world like a Rog-Raf final, and you'd be hard-pressed to bet against Nadal. Not only are his knees working well, but his head is clear and his mental strength is topped up.

Psychologically, Federer looks less well endowed. Recent statements have included the rather odd perspective that Nadal had "an advantage" by being left-handed. Well, yes, but it's not an unfair advantage any more than Bolt's long legs give him an advantage over other sprinters. He still has to turn them over fast enough to win.

Nadal still has to hit the spot when peppering Federer's backhand with those vicious, top-spin forehands. Most believe Federer's one-handed backhand can't cope over the longer term of a match against Nadal - but that reckons without the artistry of the Swiss and his ability to wave that backhand like a wand when he is "on".

Nadal has the advantage of knowing he has won six of their last seven head-to-head encounters - on all three surfaces. That's why this rivalry is becoming so great. Nadal ended Federer's streak on grass with his Wimbledon victory in 2008, just as Federer ended Nadal's triumphant clay streak in Hamburg and then took the French title last year.

Rafa fans contend that 2009 happened only because of Nadal's troubles. How, they demand, can Federer be regarded as the "best ever" when he has only a 7-14 record in matches against Nadal?

Fed fans counter that their man has now won all the Grand Slam tournaments on all surfaces, while Nadal has never even made it to the US Open final, played on hardcourt. Of the 21 matches these two have played, most have been on clay - Nadal's stronghold - skewing the head-to-head results.

In fact, they are equal in hardcourt wins head-to-head (three apiece) and they have met only three times on grass, each time a Wimbledon final for a 2-1 lead to Federer.

Small wonder, then, that Roland Garros shapes as the perfect stage for this ongoing tennis debate which is attaining the same status and interest as Borg-McEnroe and Sampras-Agassi.