Look at the losses. His opening 2015 sally was defending his Qatar title — losing in the first round to world No 127 Michael Berrer. Then he lost to Tomas Berdych in the Australian Open — ending a run of 17-straight victories against the Czech. He lost twice on his favourite clay surface to Fabio Fognini. The Italian is a handy claycourt player but had never beaten Nadal before.
At Miami, he lost to Fernando Verdasco in the second round — a fellow Spaniard who had not beaten Nadal in 13 previous meetings. He seemed to be coming right during the claycourt season but Andy Murray beat him in the final of the Madrid Open and he didn't make it past the quarter-finals in the Italian Open (beaten by Stan Wawrinka) and French Open (Djokovic).
When he demonstrably won that encounter, Djokovic did not employ his usual sprawl on the court, victory yells or chest-thump. Nadal had double-faulted to end the match, which is maybe no cause for celebration anyway, but Djokovic's quiet commiseration seemed like a respectful salute to the end of a champion's reign.
So what can turn this around for Nadal? Maybe the answer was in his analysis of his loss to Verdasco in Miami in April.
"I don't have this self-confidence that I am going to hit the ball where I want to hit the ball, to go for the ball knowing that my position will be the right one," Nadal said. "All these are small things that are difficult to explain. One of the tougher things has been fixed, that is the game, in my opinion. Now I need to fix again the nerves, the self-control on court. That's another issue."
These are big admissions for someone like Nadal, even though he is often prepared to talk openly about his problems — compared with Federer, who is adept at talking a lot while saying very little. He tends to reveal his problems only after he's fixed them.
"Last year, I lost my confidence," Federer explained to Sports Illustrated in 2014 after a previous year of batting away "decline" talk. "Instead of serving it out, you won't. Or instead of making that break point, you won't. You just won't get lucky because you've played too passive."
That's the key for Nadal who has looked curiously vulnerable this year. Win back the mind, and the form will follow. Federer has shown it can be done, although it is still a moot point whether Federer will win another major.
Will Nadal? It was only a short while ago it seemed certain he would break Federer's record. He may have to amend his playing schedule and aim himself at certain titles, sacrificing world rankings to keep body and soul, (and knees, back and wrist) together. Nadal setting himself at the French Open, for example, and winning it is still a clear possibility.
Both have Djokovic, Murray and the newly-confident Wawrinka to contend with but the next rank of younger up-and-comers do not seem to have reached this level yet and few look like they will. It may need someone like a Nick Kyrgios (though he has a lot of growing up to do) to threaten the big boys.
In the meantime, Nadal is searching for his confidence and mental toughness. Do not bet against him finding it.
