When the latest world rankings are released today, Naomi Osaka — the freshly minted Australian Open champion — will become the sixth woman to stand atop the ladder since the mid-2017, when Serena Williams stepped off the tour to have a baby.
In that period, we have become used to turbulence among the leading players, all jostling to prove themselves the best. Simona Halep managed to hang on to the No 1 spot for 48 weeks. But she was never truly dominant, landing only one major in a sequence of eight different champions from as many events.
Osaka could change that pattern. On a statistical level, she already has, because on Saturday, she became the first woman not named Williams to win back-to-back slams since Kim Clijsters in 2010-11. But her impact extends beyond mere results. No one since Williams herself has developed such locker-room power.
The assumption has long been that if Williams shows up fit and focused, and avoids any arguments with officials, she will outclass the field. Yet Osaka has changed that logic. She is the woman to beat now, thanks to a comparable weight of groundstrokes and superior movement. Only on her milk-float second serve does she show a chink of weakness.
And if Osaka really is the true world No 1, both in her results and her intimidation factor, then she is closing in on her long-held ambition: to become the new Serena.
According to Laura Penhaul, the British physiotherapist who spent time with the Osaka camp in 2017, this has long been the whole family's goal. "That's what she wants, the footsteps she wants to follow," said Penhaul, who achieved her own sporting fame when she led a rowing team on a nine-month crossing of the Pacific Ocean.
"Naomi has always idolised Serena, and when she beat Venus Williams in Hong Kong two years ago, it gave her a lot of confidence, the feeling that she could do it against the top dogs. The whole family have set out to follow the Williams model. Even her coach, Sascha Bajin, is Serena's former hitting partner.
"That was the hard thing [about the US Open final between Osaka and Serena Williams]. It was so upsetting and emotional. It's great that this time she could achieve the title on clear merit, so that it's not overshadowed."
Japan's Naomi Osaka celebrates after defeating Petra Kvitova of the Czech Republic in the women's singles final at the Australian Open. Photo / AP
Penhaul's reference was to the infamous conclusion in New York in September, when umpire Carlos Ramos' three code violations against Williams stole the headlines from Osaka's magnificent display. Without the pressure she applied on the court, there would have been no need for coaching suggestions from Patrick Mouratoglou in the players' box, nor for the racket smash that sent the whole occasion into meltdown.
It is to Osaka's credit, then, that she has regrouped and effectively consigned that fiasco to history. Her eyes are already focused on the two surface-specific slams in Paris and London. Asked on Saturday night whether she had ambitions to match the "Serena slam" — the capture of four successive majors — she replied: "I'm not going to lie and say that thought hasn't crossed my mind."
For Penhaul, who worked with Osaka during tournaments in Stuttgart, Strasbourg and Hong Kong, it is a pleasant feeling to see her former client coming out of herself and speaking with growing freedom.
"Naomi has had a belief that she is different to everybody else," she said. "She thinks she has a weird sense of humour. She blurts things out, sometimes they're unexpected, but it's a good sense of humour, too. She has a lovely heart, and she is becoming more confident in who she is.
"It's nice to see the snippets that come through in her interviews. It takes time to build a rapport with Naomi, but they're the sorts of things you see when you have known her for a while.
"She is a joy to work with, very focused and determined, and also good to her team. In my case, she showed her kindness by texting me to say that she had watched the documentary of our Pacific crossing, and saying that it had made her cry."
Penhaul's appreciative comments echo the words of Bajin.
"I believe the more open we are and the more honest we are and show vulnerability sometimes, the better this world is just going to be," Bajin said, when asked about Osaka's quirky personality during the US Open. "And all the fake emotions, I'm not a fan of it."
He didn't explain who the last comment was aimed at. But it was possible to guess.
