New Zealand's Olympic swimming hopes appear dim after Sparc's damning review of the sport and insistence on change - with insiders saying there is little or no hope of medalling at London next year.
On the surface, the review made public this week sets out to reorganise swimming's high performance efforts 13 months out from the Games.
However, sources close to swimming's power base say that, while an individual performance to gain a medal can never be entirely ruled out, the likelihood of a medal is slim or non-existent; given the time left and international performances thus far.
After the reorganisation, swimming needs to show success in London to continue to gain robust taxpayer funding.
Fear of continuing the Olympic drought at the pool stretching back to Danyon Loader's two golds in Atlanta almost 15 years ago is the reality behind Swimming New Zealand's acceptance of change following the scathing review of the sport's high performance culture by former Olympian Chris Ineson.
SNZ board chairman Murray Coulter insists they have a shot: "It is hard to pick who is going to be on the podium but I'm confident we'll see some shining through in Shanghai at the world championships at the end of next month. We wouldn't be doing this if we didn't believe it was possible.
"Gareth Kean impressed me at the Commonwealth Games. He swam down the pool faster than the world record holder but his starts and turns let him down. We've got him a starting block down in Wellington to practise, so he can close the gap. [Breaststroker] Glenn Snyders could also crack it any time."
Since the start of this year Kean's best ranking is 39th in the 50m backstroke - fellow Kiwi Daniel Bell is 33rd. Snyders best event this year is the 100m breaststroke where he ranks 16th.
Much has been made since the report's release about swimming getting a second chance ahead of London but revelations about a "dysfunctional" and "negative" environment and "lack of leadership" point to no New Zealander matching Loader's feat, or even getting on the podium.
Ineson's terms of reference were to "identify the barriers to Swimming New Zealand's (SNZ) High Performance (HP) swimmers and coaches delivering medal results at the 2012 London Olympic Games and beyond".
He determined the high performance programme "has to change if the swimmers are to have a chance of winning medals in London."
But if they don't gain at least one medal in London, Sparc could axe swimming as a targeted Olympic sport leading to Rio de Janeiro in 2016.
Coulter acknowledges the pressure is on: " If that is what Sparc says, that's what it is. We've always felt under pressure to perform at podium level. We've struggled for 100 years to do that but it's not impossible as we've seen with Danyon. We believe we can replicate that."
There can be no doubt Jan Cameron, as general manager of performance and pathways, Mike Byrne as chief executive and the SNZ board are among those seen as involved in the sport's lack of performance at elite level.
Ineson's report states that: "Many spoke about the failure of leadership at the three critical organisational levels - chair of SNZ's Board (governance); the CEO (operational) and the GM performance and pathways (high performance). The thrust of the criticism was that the dysfunctional environment at the HP centre had been festering for some time; was 'public knowledge'; but little or nothing had been done to rectify it. Ineson interviewed 86 people involved in the sport, concluding 91 per cent attributed the poor culture at the high performance centre as a significant barrier to success at London; 83 per cent criticised the leadership of SNZ and the high performance programme; and 69 per cent questioned the need for Cameron's position and that of a head coach.
That analysis is backed by three clear patterns in New Zealand swimming since the Commonwealth Games in October, as previously reported in the Herald on Sunday.
First, the culture of fear; where no athlete would speak on the record for fear of reprisal. Second, there was the cover-up around Daniel Bell's drinking post-Commonwealth Games in Delhi.
Bell is arguably New Zealand's best Olympic medal hope but his breaking of a team no-drinking rule put in place because of his own antics on previous tours was poorly handled and led to a feeling among other swimmers that he had special status.
Third, there was a sense of 'mutiny' in the regions which could yet see the board rolled in favour of a fresh start.
Sources spoken to by the Herald on Sunday say the current board will struggle to re-build trust. Coulter welcomed the review, as well he might. Disputing any of the recommendations would result in a cut to the $825,000 of high performance funding from July 1 through until the Olympics.
Coulter would not confirm Cameron's future in the high performance programme. "Her current role mightn't exist. Whether she is part of the programme going forward is yet to be seen."
That is a decision confronting the newly appointed high performance committee which is now reviewing the elite programme. As part of a temporary solution, SNZ will look to appoint a head coach or - more likely - a campaign manager to troubleshoot through to London.
Coulter admits they need to engage in more transparency with top athletes by treating them as adults. That means dealing closely with the swimming arm of the New Zealand Athletes Federation, led by three-time Olympian Helen Norfolk.
Sparc chief executive Peter Miskimmin said: "Chris captured a lot of information in a full, frank document but needed to maintain confidentiality because the report is sensitive.
"Any time you are dealing with that sort of change in structure or focus you are dealing with people and their livelihoods. The prompt response [from SNZ] has been heartening, but this is about proof of delivery, not talk."
Swimming: NZ has 'no hope' of medal
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