Arguably New Zealand's greatest rivalry for a solitary spot at next year's Olympic Games starts in less than a fortnight. Like the Mahe Drysdale-Rob Waddell single sculls rowing drama of 2008, the boardsailing contest between Tom Ashley (27) and Jon-Paul Tobin (34) at the sailing world championships from December 3 off Fremantle will decide which athlete goes to London.
Unlike Waddell, who found his way into another crew, the boardsailing loser will be discarded.
Ashley and Tobin are contenders for an Olympic gold medal but under the qualification rules only one athlete per country can contest the class. Ashley is the defending Olympic champion but Tobin is the form athlete this year; he is also fuelled with ambition, having been in and out of Ashley's shadow during the last two Games cycles.
The qualification criteria laid down by Yachting New Zealand is confidential but a decision is understood to be at the discretion of the three-person selection panel. They will largely base the call around three events: the Sail for Gold regatta at the Olympic course off Weymouth in June, the pre-Olympic regatta at the same venue in August and the world championships next month.
Tobin finished second to Ashley's ninth at Sail for Gold, earning him a place at the Olympic test event. If Tobin is the winner between the two in Perth he should secure the London nod regardless of Ashley's pedigree. If Ashley beats Tobin, the decision is likely to go in the defending champion's favour and Tobin - a former world No 1 - will face the cruel reality of a successful career devoid of a Games.