KEY POINTS:
Early momentum is seen as a key ingredient in an America's Cup showdown that young Australian helmsman James Spithill considers too hard to call.
Spithill has an insider's view on the respective strengths and weaknesses of defenders Alinghi and challengers Team New Zealand.
He was at the wheel when Luna Rossa went down 5-0 to Team New Zealand in the Louis Vuitton Cup challengers' final.
After that defeat, he took part in informal racing that the Italian syndicate had with Alinghi.
But Spithill, 27, yesterday said he promised himself he wouldn't try to tip the winners.
The reason was that none of his predictions for the LV Cup semifinals - which Team New Zealand and Luna Rossa won comfortably - and final had turned out as he expected.
"You could say I'm an expert, but I was way off for the semis and the final," he said. "I thought they could have gone the full nine races, but I was wrong. I put that down to the team that had a bit of momentum seemed really powerful.
"If you can get a couple of races under your belt, it's quite hard for the other team to recover."
Spithill said he couldn't split Alinghi and Team New Zealand anyway. "There's nothing to stop either one of them winning."
He saw Team New Zealand having an edge in being race-hardened after a tough challengers' regatta.
As well, their quick victory over Luna Rossa had allowed them a good break to recharge the batteries.
"Given it was such a long series, the challengers were all concerned about burn-out," he said.
"But I think the Kiwis have been able to recover and they will be strong on that side."
Alinghi, already ahead of the competition on the design side in the 2003 cup, had in their favour the fact that they didn't have to complete their new boats until late in the piece.
There was also the intrigue over their newest yacht, SUI100, which was launched in March but not used in the final dress rehearsal in April, the Louis Vuitton Act 13, which Alinghi won.
During their trialling with Luna Rossa, the Swiss stuck with SUI91, and also had old sails, making it hard to know how fast SUI100 was, Spithill said.
"They started off with the best tool and in all the pre-regattas they have been very strong.
"If Team New Zealand can race like they did against us, they have a real chance, but it's just so hard talking about Alinghi because we just have not really seen them."
- NZPA
