KEY POINTS:
Team New Zealand's legal expert, Jim Farmer QC, is picking that Alinghi will agree to a 'conventional' America's Cup regatta in 2009 with a full complement of challengers.
The Swiss holders have suffered two telling blows in recent days - the winning of the case in the New York Supreme Court by BMW Oracle and Grant Dalton's revelation that Emirates Team New Zealand have a claim for up to $50 million against Alinghi if the regatta is postponed past 2009.
Both matters have seen a significant power shift in the America's Cup with Alinghi now highly likely to get back round the negotiating table with BMW Oracle rather than appealing against the court decision and rather than taking on Oracle in a head-to-head duel in 90ft trimarans in October 2008.
"Alinghi said before the court case that they would not appeal and I have seen nothing which suggests otherwise," said Farmer.
"In any case, I'd agree that they are unlikely to appeal because I don't think there are any real grounds for them to do so and they would be unlikely to succeed."
That leaves the prospect of the multi-hulls' showdown. While it is too early to write off this option completely, Farmer said Team NZ's dealings with the protagonists and the other challengers while the court case was going on suggested Oracle wanted a conventional regatta in 2009 with other challengers on board.
The trimarans option - which would freeze out Team New Zealand and other challengers - is now seen as the "big stick" Oracle can wave at Alinghi to help force a compromise over the rules for the next regatta.
"I think they do want that," said Farmer. "I think all the indications are that Oracle and all the challengers want to have the event in 2009. So it is now very much dependent on how Alinghi react."
Alinghi's ability to react in any defiant manner now seems limited. If the Swiss stall or frustrate, Oracle has the option of enforcing the October 2008 trimaran challenge.
Some fear Oracle would now deliberately frustrate the negotiating process with Alinghi to bring the trimarans into play.
That possibility cannot be ruled out - cynical observers note Oracle has been proceeding with multi-hull preparations ( latest rumours suggest the mould is almost completed) even as it has been talking confidently about winning the court case.
Farmer said he did not think Oracle had been "sandbagging" negotiations to achieve a settlement during the court case and did not think they would sandbag matters now - to deliberately force the multi-hulls duel.
There is no doubt Oracle have the jump on Alinghi in terms of readying for that option and have been involving some of the world's best designers. They have reportedly hired renowned French multi-hull skipper Franck Cammas and CEO and America's Cup skipper Russell Coutts is launching his World Sailing League, a 70ft catamaran series. A multi-hull challenge will not be without its attractions to Coutts as a way of promoting the ISL he is launching with Paul Cayard.
However, Alinghi are not entirely without options. They have been linked to the blisteringly fast Hydroptere, the 'rocket ship' which recently broke world speed records, notching 44.5 knots over 500 metres and 41.5 knots over a nautical mile - and which could, in theory anyway, be adapted for use in the multi-hull challenge. The makers have close links with Alinghi.
However, most observers are now expecting compromise and agreement for a 2009 regatta - and the recent machinations have also shown the teeth of the New Zealand syndicate for the first time since they entered the 2009 regatta when Alinghi were seeking challengers.
That entry - and Team NZ's steadfast silence since then - led many to believe the Kiwis had decided to throw their hats into the Alinghi ring.
But it has now emerged that Team NZ's participation had a clever and decided sting in the tail - and they used it when Alinghi signalled recently that the regatta would be postponed to 2010 or 2011. Right, said Team NZ, that'll cost you $32m or $50m respectively, according to our agreement.
"It was," said Farmer of the agreement that any delay would see compensation paid to Team NZ "a matter of commercial prudence."
He did not know of any other such agreements between other challengers and Alinghi.
However, it is plain that, far from being meek and compliant partners as Alinghi tried to bend the America's Cup to its will, Team NZ have been actively involved in getting the two factions to the negotiating table and working closely with other challengers.
