Yachting: Now we're down to the test of theory

By Chris Dickson

Team New Zealand have left no stone unturned in their five years of preparation and are as ready as they will ever be.

In the Louis Vuitton final, Prada showed they are very strong challengers and can tough it out with the toughest.

The America's Cup, however, will be sailed at a higher level, and mistakes by either team are likely to cost races.

More importantly, it is looking, as always, like a test of boats, but with each team arriving at a very different answer to the same problem - namely, which is the faster boat, Luna Rossa or NZL60?

The differences are extensive and include the hull shapes, keels, masts, and sails. In other words, these two boats do not look similar and so the likelihood of theirgoing at the same speed appears very slim.

For a given wind condition, somebody is going to be faster, and the faster boat is probably going to win.

Technically, it is possible Prada could have the edge in lighter conditions and Team New Zealand in the stronger - but that is only theory.

We know that Prada were fast against the challengers. Luna Rossa is designed by Doug Peterson, who had a hand in the past two America's Cup winners.

They have been tried and tested and have come out on top after more than 40 races in real competition. They have passed the practical test. They must be good. But how good?

Team New Zealand won the 1995 America's Cup with a boat that was significantly faster than the competition.

They have spent a lot of time testing on the Hauraki Gulf and with the analytical skills of Tom Schnackenberg and design talents of Laurie Davidson, they must have moved on a long way from their already superior speed of 1995, right?

If, and that's a big if, the boat speeds turn out to be similar then the crews become a bigger part of the equation.

Team New Zealand have a lot of matchracing experience and although they have not had any real competition, we can still expect them to be highly competitive. I wouldn't expect them to make the same sort of mistakes that we saw in the Louis Vuitton final.

Prada are now battle-hardened and although they have shown some weaknesses, they must surely now be stronger after the intense Louis Vuitton racing.

When the boats meet for the first time, once the nerves settle down, the race will be one of discovery for both teams.

Each will have the same list of questions and will want answers: are we faster upwind? Downwind? Can we point higher? Do we tack more quickly? Can we turn faster? Do we accelerate better? Do waves hurt us more? And so on.

The key is to learn the strengths and weaknesses of the other boat so they can then work on any chinks in the armour.

The answers are likely to come quickly, and only then will the outcome start to take shape.

With the differences in the boats, I struggle to believe the speeds can be the same and so it is likely to be a one-sided boat race.

It might just take a few days to confirm which side that is.