KEY POINTS:
Team New Zealand cannot perform as they are doing and expect to make the finals of the America's Cup, says yachting commentator Peter Lester.
Three times an America's Cup sailor, Lester says BMW Oracle's USA98 yacht seems to be the fastest of the challenging yachts - and may have found a technical aid that gives them extra speed. Team New Zealand, he says, are not yet sailing as well as they were last year although there is still time - but not much.
The much-anticipated clash between Team New Zealand and BMW Oracle didn't make it to the starter's gun yesterday but were due to go off overnight if winds permitted. While the fickle nature of the winds mean the New Zealand might have been competitive in a one-off race the real test of their relative speeds would come in a series of races, and Lester says Oracle may be the syndicate with a little silver bullet in their armoury.
The American syndicate, headed by New Zealander Chris Dickson, are so far unbeaten in round one with two races to go. But, even though the race against TNZ may prove otherwise, it seems that the Oracle boat, USA98, is faster than the rest.
In light of speculation that one, or maybe some, of the teams have worked out a way of using the forces of their rig to help support their keel fin (which could give them a speed advantage if legal), Lester now wonders if one of those teams is Oracle.
"I think there is enough floating around to think they have done something inside the boat to enhance the performance," Lester said
"You'd be naive to think they haven't. Have they got a silver bullet in their armoury? Maybe."
USA98 doesn't appear to have any weaknesses at this stage. It is manoeuvrable in the pre-starts and lacks nothing upwind or down wind.
"USA98 would be the boat of preference at the moment," Lester said. "I don't see anything with that piece of kit that looks vulnerable."
At the end of last year Team New Zealand's NZL84 set the benchmark. Oracle's first boat USA87 looked to have a few weaknesses. At times it looked difficult to sail.
However, it appears Oracle may have leap-frogged Team New Zealand's NZL92.
"They have sailed around boats that Team New Zealand have not been able to," Lester said.
"They made Mascalzone Latino look average, boat-speed wise, and tactically. New Zealand couldn't do that. They [Oracle] do appear, when they get in a tight spot, to be able to push forward."
In terms of crew, the Oracle afterguard is now a lot more settled following the return of Gavin Brady, who left the team for a period.
"Gavin Brady has fallen back into tactician's role, they look formidable," said Lester.
"For the other challengers when [skipper and helmsman Chris] Dickson is in the right head space there is no one better. With their manoeuvres they haven't made a mistake but you would expect that, they have a solid Kiwi crew."
Lester said NZL92 is fast enough. Just.
"They need to find more," he said. "The reality is this is the first regatta for NZL92 and it has been beaten twice already. It is good enough but it doesn't sparkle upwind yet. Downwind it is good.
"Initially it looked like it might have had an advantage downwind, but that didn't show up against Luna Rossa."
When sailing to windward the boats can either sail close to the wind, (referred to as high pointing) or slightly further away (footing).
High pointing mode can be used to make a weather mark or keep above another yacht's dirty air. Footing is slightly quicker and is used when sailors know they are going to lay the mark or wish to drive over the top of an opponent.
Lester said Team New Zealand looked to be struggling a bit with pointing mode.
"That could be because of the sails they are using.
"It could be the design of the sails they are using and they may need a tweak."
Lester said Team New Zealand were not yet at the level of last year when they beat Alinghi to win the final match racing regatta. He believes they can get there.
"But time is running out.
"They cannot perform like they are performing now and expect to get to the finals."
While USA98 could be fractionally faster than NZL92, the latter appears fractionally faster than Luna Rossa'sITA94. Lester said Luna Rossa sometimes appeared to be on the defensive.
"When they were in the lead against Team New Zealand they sometimes looked like they were defending quite a lot. Because they have been in the game so long they are doing well at developing what they have got. Have they got the tools to get them to the next level? Yes, they have."
A small step down again in boat speed is Desafio Espanol and Italy's Mascalzone Latino. Lester said both have good all-round boats.
"Mascalzone Latino are a young team on the rise.
"They have a good solid boat. This might not be their party but they could get into the semifinals."
