Yachting: Billionaires keep world guessing

Ernesto Bertarelli. Photo / Kenny Rodger

So much for the legal, now it's ego time in the America's Cup.

BMW Oracle has won the right to stage a one-on-one giant multi-hull regatta for the Cup - but both Oracle and holders Alinghi have spoken prettily about wanting an event involving all 18 challengers, including Team New Zealand, probably in May next year.

They both want it, so it will happen, right? Well, uh, no. Not necessarily. It depends on whether multi-billionaires Larry Ellison of Oracle and Ernesto Bertarelli of Alinghi can agree.

So far they have shown few signs of agreeing on anything, anywhere, any time. If the fact that today is Sunday was thrown on the table, they'd almost certainly fail to agree about that.

Friday's New York court decision allowing Oracle to become the Challenger of Record established one thing and one thing only - Oracle have won the right to stage a big-boat race-off (best of three races) for the Cup against Alinghi. The rest comes down to negotiation.

In one corner sits Alinghi and 18 challengers, including Emirates Team NZ. Before the court case was decided, Alinghi and the challengers agreed on a protocol for the 33rd America's Cup - the rules and regulations governing everything, including the size and shape of the boats.

They all want a normal multi-challenger regatta but Alinghi have been building a giant catamaran - thought to be as big as 115 feet and incorporating state-of-the-art multi-hull speed technology, possibly including aerofoils - just in case they need to fight the big boat battle.

In the other corner sits Oracle. They have already built a giant US$20 million 90-foot trimaran for the big boat challenge with Alinghi.

They have said they want a multi-challenger event too. But they want the event based more on the old protocol for the 32nd America's Cup, raced in Valencia in 2007.

Sounds easy, doesn't it? Just negotiate, work out the rules and regs like civilised people and off we go. Opportunity is nigh. Compromise is key.

So is pragmatism. Oracle have a great chance of taking the America's Cup in the one-on-one challenge. If they agree to a multi-challenger event, they immediately weaken their own position as regards winning the Cup.

Beat Alinghi one-on-one or dice with 18 other defenders to get the right to challenge Alinghi for the Cup? You do the maths; the percentages.

"It's always been the kiss of death," said one Cup observer about Oracle winning the position of Challenger of Record. "No Challenger of Record has ever won the America's Cup."

The cynics say the most likely outcome is a failure to agree on the rules and the big boat challenge will be on.

Both syndicates have promised a multi-challenger event immediately after that but it would almost certainly not be held until 2011 and maybe later. There are two other scenarios - first, there could be a surprise and Messrs Ellison and Bertarelli and their legal eagles could agree on a mutually acceptable format for a multi-challenger event.

Second, there could yet be more legal challenges, delaying the cup further - perhaps to some kind of suspended animation. This is what Britain's TeamOrigin skipper, former Team NZ member and Olympic gold medallist Ben Ainslie was talking about during the Louis Vuitton regatta in Auckland earlier this year.

If Oracle won the court case, he said in February, it would be the worst for the Cup. He couldn't see Oracle holding a multi-challenger event.

"If Oracle win, that will just open the way for new legal arguments - where the race is, when it will be held, is Oracle's boat legal ... it will go on and on," he said.

"A whole new set of issues will arise even if there are no more legal disputes pertaining to the Deed of Gift. I would think, if that happens, it would be pretty terminal for all teams - including Team New Zealand."

However, perhaps that is the most unlikely scenario. One estimate has it that Alinghi's Bertarelli has been footing a US$500,000 legal bill per month since July 2007 - nowhere near exhausting his personal fortune but it ain't breadcrumbs either ...

In a difficult sponsorship market, unrestrained spending starts to hurt and Alinghi have said they won't challenge the New York court ruling - but who knows whether that stance will be maintained. The future of the Cup - and not just the immediate future - is at stake here and that is the strongest motivation for compromise.

It just depends whether that outweighs Oracle's probable pragmatic view that, with the legal victory, they have a bird in the hand that they have no intention of releasing into the bush.

In addition, there is another element - Louis Vuitton. The Louis Vuitton Pacific Series in Auckland, won by Emirates Team NZ, was so successful internationally that the company and its colourful and well-known promoter Bruno Trouble were clearly interested in furthering the concept.

Although all concerned were at pains to say things like "This is not the America's Cup", the Louis Vuitton series plainly offers an alternative to teams and sponsors alarmed at the possibility of a long, barren spell without meaningful racing.

The Herald on Sunday understands that Oracle, Team New Zealand and Louis Vuitton (the architects of the

last regatta) have been talking about a further regatta or regattas, either as pre-Cup regattas or as fully fledged alternatives for sidelined challengers should the one-on-one challenge or any further legal action take place.

That would allow teams and sponsors to operate as normal while waiting for a multi-challenger event.

And so it all comes down to those billionaire blokes. Will they go for the altruistic and keep the future of the Cup in mind? Or will pragmatism and self-interest rule, as it has every step of the way down the legal challenge which has lasted since July 2007?

Perhaps the last word should go to Cory Friedman, a US lawyer, sailor and Cup commentator who told Forbes: "This is a domestic relations case - these people can't live with each other and they can't live without each other. They're stuck with each other and they can't agree on a thing."