Yachting: Battle of the monsters

By the end of next week - and this is a big punt, people - BMW Oracle could well be the holder of the America's Cup after three days of sailing following 800 days of legal action.

Trying to pick the winner of the 33rd America's Cup is like... well, let's see... it's like attempting to select the victor of two rugby teams, both of whom you have never seen; who have never played the game before; and either one of whom could go down injured within moments of kickoff.

Confused? You'd better be - because this is the America's Cup 2010 where nothing is as it seems and where lawyers are more important than sailors, or at least they have been for the past two and a half years.

Tomorrow night's (NZT) first race (in a best-of-three series) between USA 17, BMW Oracle's enormous and technologically advanced trimaran, and Alinghi's enormous and technologically advanced catamaran, is set to go. But no-one is really any the wiser when it comes to tipping the winner.

The result also depends on the weather which, even though there are experts and scientific analyses galore, insists on surprising we mere humans. Even worse, no matter what the result is, the loser will likely appeal to a court after the match to seek legal overturning of the on-field outcome. More lawyers. Groan. Neither multi-hull has ever been raced. They so technologically push the yachting envelope that no-one is really sure whether the massive craft can actually handle the conditions they will find off the coast of Valencia, in Spain. Both are said to be 'flying machines' - capable of turning puffs of wind into searing speeds across the water. They are like expensively-bred thoroughbreds; fast but prone to blowing a fetlock. Both have had costly breakdowns in training.

"That's another scenario," said Emirates Team New Zealand boss Grant Dalton. "What happens if these two things are going at the same speed - it can happen - and they decide to throw the throttle open and... bang! It's quite possible that no-one finishes. The Cup stays with Alinghi then... and both of them could drop their rig on the way to the first mark. It's possible."

No expense has been spared by the billionaire owners of these two giant multi-hulls, Alinghi's Ernesto Bertarelli and BMW Oracle's Larry Ellison. No-one's talking money but it is popularly supposed that about US$100 million each - and maybe more than that - has been spent by the two big boys in their search of what used to be yachting's Holy Grail.

US$100 million? That's what US President Barack Obama pledged in aid to Haiti in the wake of the earthquake. But let's not dwell on that too much, lest we start questioning the utter futility and pig-headedness of spending so much on a couple of boats which will likely never be used again after this week - and which should never have been necessary in the first place.

So why Oracle as the winner? Four main reasons:

1. They have had longer with their boat than Alinghi have with theirs. That could be vital.

2. The weather - early forecasts suggest breezes of about 10-14 knots. BMW Oracle's trimaran is popularly supposed to be better in stiffer breezes than Alinghi's catamaran, allegedly faster in lighter airs.

3. The venue - Alinghi tried to move heaven and hell (and the New York Supreme Court, which is harder) to get the venue shifted to the United Arab Emirates where more Alinghi-friendly breezes were likely. They failed.Valencia is in winter and the conditions, as in reason 2, should favour BMW Oracle.

4. Oracle's wing sail - this astonishing piece of kit is nearly 60 metres high. It is about 14 metres longer than the wing of the biggest passenger aircraft in the world; the Airbus A380. It is just short of the total wingspan, including fuselage, of a jumbo jet.

It weighs 3500kg and covers 2050 square metres. It is made from carbon fibre and kevlar, covered with a skin of light, shrinkable aeronautical film. Some reports claim the giant wing mast is so efficient it easily turns 10 knots of wind into 32 knots through the water. Other reports say 2-2.5 times windspeed is more realistic.

But no one is quite sure how it will cope with stronger breezes. Most are picking it is aimed at combating Alinghi's gearing for lighter airs and may be used only when those conditions apply.

Against all that, however, it must be said that Alinghi's Bertarelli, skipper Brad Butterworth and the team as a whole are far from stupid. It will be a major surprise if they have not cooked up a plan B.

One thing they have in their favour from the last, tedious but important round of court action was that they control the start time. Racing will begin at 10am every day. In Valencia, the morning tends to bring only lighter airs with the sea breezes picking up in the afternoon.

Earlier last week, Alinghi also won the right to carry water ballast during the racing - meaning Alinghi could pump the water out or shift it around, allowing the bows to drop; producing a waterline longer than 90 feet (the longer the waterline, the faster the boat).

Oracle, however, won the other four legal points. International sailing rules will apply over the rules Alinghi wanted to adopt - meaning they can't overrule jury decisions that do not suit them. Alinghi also lost the argument over minimum limits for wind speed and wave size before racing - preventing them from calling off racing if it didn't suit their craft.

Oracle also won the right to use a secret product that reduces drag and are allowed to use a new, high-tech wind detection system.

Whatever happens, the likelihood is that the loser will go back to court for - yawn - a legal challenge.

The New York Supreme Court has shelved BMW Oracle's current action against Alinghi until after the regatta. The Americans said the Swiss used sails made in the US, not in Switzerland as Cup rules stipulate. The Swiss have made a counter-claim that the US hull is actually French-made.

That may be more of a stretch but the facility exists for ongoing lawyers. Dalton, however, is not so sure court action will eventuate or that it will be time-consuming.

"I think there are three main elements," he said. "Oracle will win in a clean result that will not take long to resolve [in court]. Secondly, Alinghi will win and that also won't take long to resolve afterwards.

"Thirdly, if Oracle get whacked 2-0 by a big margin, will they have an appetite for court action? The PR wars favour Oracle but not by much - it's probably 60/40 in their favour rather than 80/20. So they may not decide to go back to court."

Dalton responded with "I haven't got a clue" when asked who he thought would win the regatta in Valencia; any subsequent court action; and when the next multi-challenger America's Cup event involving Emirates Team NZ would be.

But one thing is clear - if Oracle win, the likelihood that the Louis Vuitton series will be folded into the America's Cup will increase. BMW Oracle are a co-founder of the series and have reputedly poured a lot of money into it, meaning it is likely the Louis Vuitton series will be used as Cup pre-regattas. That could also see the return of the Cup's most consistent and high-profile sponsor; spurned under Alinghi's rule.

But Dalton points out that Alinghi, too, have been supportive of the Louis Vuitton series, which kicks off again next month. "Alinghi have been non-threatening when it comes to the Louis Vuitton. It has been all about the survival of their challengers and I think Alinghi also realise there is no reason why it [the Louis Vuitton series] can't be complementary to the America's Cup.

"All Emirates Team NZ want is a fair protocol [the rules] and consistency [for the next America's Cup] but, either way, the Louis Vuitton regattas will have life and legs. We are over apportioning blame; it's all about the result now."

Some of us aren't beyond apportioning blame, however. In Valencia in 2007 when Alinghi's protocol for the next event was announced, it drew widespread horror from syndicates and sailors - and not just Kiwis.

They shot themselves in both feet. It was viewed as one of the most self-serving edicts in the modern history of the Cup; easily breaching the line that says 'the Defender sets the rules' with the perception that the Defender wanted a set of rules designed to keep the Cup in perpetuity.

It was that which led to BMW Oracle's court challenge and, since then, the two billionaires have bickered and bartered and bored the pants off everyone with their frustrating ability to disagree on everything.

There is no doubt the America's Cup is not dead - the old girl is too tough for that - but few ordinary people, the same people who took the Cup to their hearts a few years back, take an interest any more and have even been bitterly resistant to the billionaires' self-interested squabbles.

Hopefully, what happens in Valencia this week will be the start of getting them back on board.