By TERRY MADDAFORD
Should Team New Zealand be scared as their defence of the America's Cup gets tantalisingly closer? No, if the experts are to be believed.
In a sport where millimetres on a boat can mean big losses or gains on the water, the high-tech world of America's Cup has gone to new limits.
In the end, of course, it is unlikely to come down to one factor alone, but to the combination of boat speed and crew-work, as Alinghi and Oracle BMW Racing have shown in their battle to find which of the challengers will square off against Team New Zealand in the nine-race sail-off for the Auld Mug.
By the time the defender and their challenger go to the start line on February 15, both boats will be ready for their optimum test.
Working within the strict parameters governing the America's Cup Class boats - the class introduced after the infamous "Big Boat" challenge in 1988 - designers, working within the rules, still look for changes by "tweaking" their boats in the search for extra speed.
In the early stages of the Louis Vuitton Cup challengers' series, the $120 million Alinghi challenge was seen as a shot's eye to head the challengers.
With former Team New Zealand skipper Russell Coutts at the helm, Alinghi not only beat virtually all comers in the oldest of the "new-generation" boats, but looked good doing it.
But, as New Zealand Yachting's high performance manager Peter Lester pointed out, "they did not leap out of the water and look a lot faster than the rest".
Lester said Team New Zealand could take heart from that.
"It was not like what Coutts and Team New Zealand did in San Diego with NZL32 in 1995 when they thumped Young America 5-0, or three years ago when they beat Luna Rossa in NZL60 by the same margin," said Lester. "In both regattas, they were clearly the fastest. No one boat has asserted the same domination this time.
"If you look at the three syndicates still in the running, they have radically different boats which is not surprising, given they have come from three different design teams."
Lester says the Alinghi syndicate has "optimised their boat for the conditions" and have in each race then set out to win the first cross and be first around the first mark.
"They are powerful upwind and happy to defend whatever advantage they have downwind. Their boat has looked good all round."
Australian Grant Simmer, part of the Alinghi design team, said: "Everybody strives for different things when building these boats. We have focused on hull shape and sail development.
"There is nothing radical under the water, but we have done a lot of work in refining keel configurations and keel shapes.
"The main difference in these boats is in the shape of the hulls, which can be quite extreme. Our boats are not as narrow as Oracle or Stars & Stripes."
Asked what he thought Team New Zealand might come up with, Simmer said the Swiss had tried not to second-guess what the defenders might do.
"We have focused on our own development programme. The advantage Team New Zealand have is they have allowed us pretty much to see what they want us to see. It is not in what configuration they might end up with. It is unlikely they will race with a super-long bulb [on their keel]."
While concerned with the results of the later races against Oracle, Simmer said they had never underestimated the Americans.
"In smooth water the differences between the boats get amplified. In rough water you will not see a great difference between the two boats."
Bill Trenkle, from Team Dennis Conner, feels Team New Zealand are still the one to beat. "I don't think Alinghi can go much faster. In most of their races so far they have controlled from the front.
"At the unveiling I was quite surprised at how conventional they [Alinghi] looked. They have a steep bow-angle which has allowed them to push the volume forward and made for an elegant boat with a nice motion through the water.
"This has allowed them to be more aggressive than the other challengers.
"Team New Zealand is a different story. Because of the 'hula', they have been able to push the volume back, which I feel will give them a speed advantage.
"But," said Trenkle, "in the end it comes down to [Team New Zealand skipper] Dean Barker and what he does at the start.
"We think if they had come up with a standard boat they could have been in trouble, as Alinghi have had the advantage of developing as they have gone along."
Former America's Cup skipper and now television commentator Ed Baird agrees with those who say Team New Zealand should start favourite.
"In one sense they have to be happy that no challenger has shown to have a vast superiority over the rest," said Baird. "On the other hand, we have no idea of what Team New Zealand are capable of.
"Alinghi have shown they have a faster all-round boat. Their crew have shown the ability to work together on board.
"There are few or no words among the crew. They have shown a level of efficiency and the ability to be in the right place at the right time.
"Their boat is well-designed and they have shown it is working well for them.
"But, when it comes down to it, Team New Zealand are, I feel, a quarter of a step ahead of the rest, just as they have been in the past."
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