If the first day of World Series racing has taught us one thing, it's that Team New Zealand could yet be haunted by a ghost of Christmas past.
Dean Barker's American Magic have been sailing consistently well and their victory against an impressive Team NZ in the last raceon day one would have forced them into a good rethink. Peter Burling's start was bad and set the Americans up for the win. Team New Zealand looked like they did not have enough power to start on time. They have to be a more active before the start and guard against complacency.
That said, Team NZ will learn far more from the defeat than from any race they'll win in this regatta and while the boats were quite similar downwind during the race, Team NZ seemed to have a healthy lead upwind.
Back to Barker. He is sailing really well at the moment and I see him getting even better. No team will be more concerned, however, than INEOS Team UK.
The Brits' struggles were clear for everyone to see yesterday - their foil cant system has been a huge problem for them for more than a year and I just can't see them turning it around.
I can't understand why it has taken them this long to sort it out. Two teams are going home in February, after the Prada Cup, and at the moment the Brits will be one of them.
There will be a huge amount of pressure on Team UK after that poor showing and from what we've seen in the first races skipper Ben Ainslie doesn't cope well with pressure.
He has been quite vocal about Team NZ's reluctance to share data on the controversial foil cant system, one of the big reasons for Ainslie's struggles, with the other syndicates.
The one-design component, which is effectively the hydraulics that control the foil arms on the AC75s, was designed by Team NZ so the software is the team's intellectual property.
Should they share it? Absolutely.
It's such a huge integral part of the boat sailing around the course and I can't see much of a downside. Why not let all the teams help make the thing perfect so we don't have any races lost due to this. If not, there will be a lot of races where one team wins by 2km - and that's pretty average.
As for the Italians, I would not be at all surprised if they run into some issues internally with their dual skipper system, where Jimmy Spithill and Francesco Bruni never change sides.
You would think that's a good idea but they'll find out who sails the boat best once they get that data to them - and there could be internal issues with that if one guy's a lot faster than the other guy. It's a difficult way to do it - Spithill is obviously a seasoned match racer and Bruni is a very good sailor in his own right, but doesn't have the background that Spithill does.
There still plenty of room for the Italians - and the other teams - to get better and that's why I don't see anyone hiding too much during the rest of the World Series and the Christmas Race. They will be pushing the boats as hard as they can. Reliability is a big deal for these guys and they will have the hammer down - at least for the first couple of legs.
Any improvements from here would only be incremental to add up to maybe one or two per cent extra. There's always a chance one of these teams hit a home run - but I doubt that.
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